TCU vs West Virginia Odds, Picks: Great Spot for Horned Frogs

TCU vs West Virginia Odds, Picks: Great Spot for Horned Frogs article feature image

Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: West Virginia head coach Bob Huggins.

TCU vs West Virginia Odds

Wednesday, Jan. 18
7 p.m. ET
TCU Odds
-110o / -110u
West Virginia Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The electrifying Big 12 schedule rolls on with a Wednesday night matchup between two teams having drastically different seasons in the conference.

The TCU Horned Frogs got back on track Saturday, handing No. 13 Kansas State its first Big 12 loss of the season. Senior power forward Emanuel Miller recorded his second 20-point game in a row to lead the Horned Frogs.

For the West Virginia Mountaineers, this is desperation time. The Mountaineers are still searching for their first conference victory, sitting at 0-5 in the Big 12. They'll look to use their home-court advantage that ranks second in the country, according to KenPom, to end this losing streak.

In order to determine if West Virginia can get back on track, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for TCU vs. West Virginia.

TCU Horned Frogs

After four hotly-contested games to open Big 12 play, TCU had a coming out party by handing Kansas State its first loss in the conference by 14 points.

TCU's offense has found success by limiting turnovers, creating second chances and getting to the free-throw line.

The Horned Frogs rank 40th nationally in turnover percentage, turning the ball over on just 16.3% of their possessions. Their ability to take care of the basketball will be important against a Mountaineers defense that forces turnovers on 22% of possessions.

In addition to not allowing West Virginia extra possessions off turnovers, TCU will create extra possessions for itself on the glass. The Horned Frogs earn second chances on 35.1% of possessions, the 23rd-highest rate in the country.

This success on the offensive glass will continue against a West Virginia team allowing opponents to create second chances on 28.7% of possessions (182nd).

The final advantage for TCU's offense is its ability to get to the free-throw line against a West Virginia team that struggles to defend without fouling. The Horned Frogs create 20.1% of their points from the charity stripe, while West Virginia allows opponents to score 22.9% of their points from the stripe, which is the 27th-highest rate in the country.

Although this is a perfect buy-low spot with West Virginia playing desperately on its home floor, TCU will have plenty of opportunities to find success on the offensive end.

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West Virginia Mountaineers

Despite an offense that ranks 20th nationally in adjusted efficiency, the Mountaineers still find themselves in a tie for last place in the Big 12. Part of that can be attributed to the 14th-toughest schedule in the nation, according to KenPom's components.

Offensively, West Virginia has been at its best this season when it creates penetration and gets to the free-throw line. The Mountaineers have the 20th-highest free-throw rate in the country.

Unfortunately for them, TCU has been effective at defending without fouling this season. The Frogs have allowed opponents to score just 16.7% of their total points from the charity stripe.

Without additional scoring from the line, the Mountaineers will struggle to pull away from a TCU team that has proven it can withstand defensive pressure.

TCU vs West Virginia Betting Pick

West Virginia finds itself in a similar position as Texas Tech. Both are attempting to defend their home court and correct an abysmal start in conference play.

With this in mind, I expect the Mountaineers to be favored on their home floor. Although this is warranted, I believe it presents an opportunity to invest in TCU in a rare underdog spot.

TCU is no stranger to hostile road environments, having already played Baylor and Texas on the road. The Horned Frogs went 1-1 in these contests and lost to Texas by just four.

That experience, combined with an ability to take advantage of West Virginia's weaknesses, makes this a great spot to buy TCU despite the Mountaineers' desperation.

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Nick Sterling
Jun 22, 2024 UTC