Iowa State vs Oklahoma State Odds & Picks: How to Bet Big 12 Battle
Pictured: Oklahoma State Cowboys forward Moussa Cisse. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Iowa State vs Oklahoma State Odds
|Iowa State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Oklahoma State Odds|
-110o / -110u
The Iowa State Cyclones have stormed out to their best start in conference play since the 1999-2000 season. The Cyclones (5-1) only loss was a two-point heartbreaker on the road against Kansas, with whom Iowa State is tied atop the conference.
The Cyclones will look to keep the momentum rolling Saturday as they head to Stillwater to square off against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are 7-2 at Gallagher-Iba Arena this season.
Oklahoma State is looking to put a win streak together for the first time since the turn of the new year after a 72-56 blowout win against their rival Sooners. The win over Oklahoma ended the Cowboys’ three-game conference skid.
A win over the Cyclones would be huge for a Cowboys team trying to fight its way back to .500. But to do so, Oklahoma State will have to find a way to score against a Cyclones defense that ranks sixth in the nation and is the best in the Big 12.
The Cyclones defense has been a thorn in opponents’ sides all year. Iowa State has held teams to just 58.5 points per game this season and just 61.3 points in conference play. The Cyclones defense is led by a trio of guards who all rank in top 10 in the Big 12 in steals per game.
Caleb Grill leads the way with two steals per game, but four Cyclones average over one steal per game in conference play. And since Big 12 play began, Iowa State’s offense has also improved.
The Cyclones have seen a slight uptick when it comes to scoring in the paint, but the most noticeable improvement has been from 3-point range. In non-conference play, the Cyclones were averaging 19.5 3-point attempts per game, but were only shooting 32.6%.
Six games into Big 12 play and they’re averaging 20 attempts per game while shooting 41.7%. No team has been better from deep in conference play.
The Cowboys have held teams to 29.2% shooting from 3 this season, but it’s been a very different story in conference play. Big 12 opponents are hitting 34.4% from deep through six games against the Cowboys.
A taste of their own medicine could very well be what finally knocks the Cyclones off their high horse atop the Big 12. Iowa State may boast the best defense in the conference, but the Cyclones aren’t the only defense ranked in the top 10 nationally, per KenPom.
Oklahoma State ranks eighth nationally and is second in the Big 12 when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Cowboys have held teams to just 62.1 points per game and rank third in the nation in defensive block percentage.
The Cowboys average 5.7 blocks per game via their trio of big men — Moussa Cisse, Kalib Boone and Tyreek Smith. However, Cisse’s availability is still in question. He made a short appearance against Oklahoma, but that was his first time on the floor since January 2nd.
Cisse played just two minutes against Oklahoma and having him back against Iowa State would be a game changer for the Cowboys offense. From the beginning of the season through their game against West Virginia, the Cowboys hit 69.8% of their shots at the rim and shot 45.9% in the paint. In four games without Cisse, Oklahoma State has made just 59% of its shots at the rim and is shooting 31.9% in the paint.
Iowa State’s defense is elite, but its kryptonite has been interior scoring as the Cyclones have allowed opposing teams to shoot over 70% at the rim.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma State Betting Pick
My view on this game depends almost entirely on Moussa Cisse’s status. Oklahoma State has a chance without him, but if he does play — even in a limited capacity of 10+ minutes — I think that’s enough to swing this game in the Cowboys’ favor.
If Cisse starts, I’ll be placing a pregame wager on the Cowboys moneyline. If he doesn’t, I’ll look to target either side of this game at +4 or better live. I expect a low-scoring rock fight in Stillwater and wouldn’t be surprised to see both of these teams stay below 70.
These teams rank one and two in the Big 12 when it comes to defense, but they are also one and two when it comes to kill shots (scoring runs of 10 or more). Iowa State leads the conference and is top 10 in the nation, averaging one per game.
An ideal situation for me would be Cisse not playing and the Cowboys jumping out to an early lead. I would target the Cyclones on both the spread and moneyline in that situation.