CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting UL Monroe-LSU, 3 Other Friday Games
Furman Paladins forward Noah Gurley (4) is fouled by LSU Tigers forward Kavell Bigby-Williams (11) and forward Emmitt Williams (24). Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting four college basketball games on Friday, headlined by UL Monroe-LSU (8 p.m. ET, SEC Network).
- Sharps are also getting down on Austin Peay-Arkansas (8 p.m. ET, SEC Nework), Denver U-Omaha (8:30 p.m. ET) and South Dakota-North Dakota State (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
The long holiday hiatus is finally over. College basketball is back! With football winding down, sharps will begin transitioning to college and professional hoops full-time. The march to the madness is officially underway.
After examining today’s 17-game slate using betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified four games that pros are betting on Friday night, with games starting at 8 p.m. ET, 8:30 p.m. ET and 9 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 3:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
UL Monroe at LSU
8 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 144.5 to 142.5)
Recreational bettors tend to focus on two stats when betting a total: points per game and points allowed. If both teams have high-scoring offenses, take the over. If they boast stifling defenses, take the under.
UL Monroe averages 74.27 PPG on offense, while LSU averages 80.67 PPG. Add both numbers up and they equal 154.94.
This total opened at 144.5. So take the over, right? Not so fast, say the sharps.
Betting percentages are split 50/50 but more than 80% of dollars are on the under. Sharps hammered the Under 144.5 and 143.5, triggering a pair of steam moves via Sports Insights’ Bet Signals that dropped the total to 142.5.
Austin Peay at Arkansas
8 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 153 to 155)
Sometimes betting percentages can be deceiving. This over is getting 83% of bets and 88% of dollars. On the surface, this looks like a big public over play.
However, we’ve only tracked 747 bets on this game. So this means that the “public” is likely sharp bettors specifically targeting this total. Not many casual bettors wake up and say “I need to hammer that Austin Peay Over.”
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam moves on the Over, with sharps getting down hard on Over 153 and then again at Over 154.5.
This influx of smart money forced oddsmakers to adjust the total up to 155.
Denver U at Omaha
8:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 151 to 152)
If the majority of bets are on the over and the total rises, that’s standard movement. Same thing if the majority of bets are on the under and the total falls.
However, if the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages (reverse line movement), that’s when it raises red flags.
This total opened at 151. Currently 55% of bets are on the under, but nearly 60% of dollars are on the over. This signals a classic Pros vs. Joes bet split, with recreational bettors leaning under, but sharps expecting a high-scoring game.
Wiseguys got down hard on Over 150.5, Over 151 and Over 152.5, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves.
South Dakota at North Dakota State
9 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 136 to 134.5)
Wiseguys are staying up late to sweat this battle of the Dakotas over/under.
The line opened at 136. Currently 58% of bets are taking the under, indicating moderate public support. However, we’ve seen the line drop to 134.5.
Typically, 58% of bets might force bookmakers to adjust the juice a few cents, but not drop a line nearly two full points.
What caused the line to plummet? Two huge steam moves on the Under 136.5 and Under 135.5. The fact that the line got worse but sharps still hit the under signals supreme wiseguy confidence.