Creighton vs. Providence Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s College Basketball Over/Under
Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Zegarowski (11), Christian Bishop (13), Martin Krampelj (15).
- The Creighton Bluejays will head east for a Big East matchup against the Providence Friars on Saturday afternoon.
- The Friars are coming off an impressive victory over Butler, while the Bluejays have been solid.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the game below and shares a betting pick based on his analysis.
Creighton vs. Providence Odds
|Creighton Odds||-4 [BET NOW]|
|Providence Odds||+4 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-190 / +160 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||146 [BET NOW]|
Two of the top teams in the Big East battle on Saturday as Creighton travels to Rhode Island to battle Providence.
After dropping their opening game of Big East play to Marquette, the Bluejays have rattled off three straight wins and look poised to battle Villanova for the Big East title.
Creighton has one of the best offenses in the country, led by Marcus Zegarowski, who is one of the best point gaurds in the Big East. Can Zegarowski and the Bluejays keep pace with Villanova at the top of the conference?
Villanova and Creighton are the clear top two teams in the Big East this season, but Providence may be holding claim to the third spot in the conference.
The Friars got some revenge on Butler this week, beating the Bulldogs by 20 points at home and holding them to only 55 points in the process. However, Creighton is the best team Providence has played this season, so will the Friars be up to the task?
When Creighton has the ball
The Bluejays’ pace-and-space offense allows for a ton of wide-open looks, because of how good they are with their ball movement. They take a ton of 3s, as 43.6% of their field goal attempts come from behind the arc, which is the 55th-highest rate in the country, per KenPom.
Now, shooting 3s at a rate like that is justified when three of your four starters are shooting over 40% from deep, which is the case with Creighton.
The Bluejays also love to get out and run, as they play the 76th-fastest tempo in the country. Even with that uptempo style of play, they are incredibly disciplined, as they have the 13th-lowest turnover rate in the country.
The strength of the Providence team coming into the season was supposed to be its defense, but outside of the Butler game, it’s been the definition average. It ranks around the NCAA average in almost every defensive metric.
Providence is pretty big up front with Nate Watson and Greg Gantt, so Creighton may have to stick to its outside game.
Keys for Creighton on offense
Stick to your identity. Providence doesn’t have many strengths or weaknesses on defense, so don’t change what’s been successful.
Keys for Providence on defense
Defend the 3-ball. Creighton is going to shoot a ton of 3s, and if it shoots at or above its average of 37%, Providence’s offense won’t be able to keep up.
When Providence has the ball
For Providence to find success on offense, it has to get the ball as close to the basket as possible.
Watson is one of the best big men in the Big East and will be a matchup problem for Creighton. However, the main reason Providence needs to get to rack is because 60% of its points come from 2-point range, and it’s awful from behind the arc.
Providence shoots a dismal 27.3% from behind the arc, which ranks 295th in the country. So, if the Friars can’t shoot a high percentage from inside, it’s going to be hard for them to keep up with Creighton’s high flying offense.
Creighton has made major strides on the defensive end of the court. Last season, the Bluejays ranked 78th in defensive efficiency, but this season, they are already up to 40th, per KenPom.
The biggest improvements have come on the boards, as they’ve improved their defensive rebounding percentage by almost 5%, which doesn’t sound like a lot but is actually a major improvement.
Providence’s big men have been above average on the offensive glass, so Creighton will need to keep them off the boards if it wants to pick up its fourth straight Big East win.
Keys for Providence on offense
Get the ball as close to basket as possible and don’t settle for low-percentage shots. The biggest difference between the first and second game against Butler was not settling for outside shots, as the Friars took half the number of 3s in the win as they did in the loss.
Keys for Creighton on defense
Force Providence into low-percentage shots. If Providence can get the ball down low and score at the rim with ease, then the Bluejays are going to be in trouble. However, if they force Providence to shoot a ton of 3s, they should be able to keep the Friars in check.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The only way Providence is going to win this game is by slowing the pace of the game and getting the ball down low. Defensively, the Friars are also going to have to keep Creighton off the 3-point line if they want to have a chance to keep the Bluejays in check.
With Providence being at home, I think there’s a good chance it’ll control the pace of this game.
I have the total projected at 144.28, so I think there’s a little bit of value on under 146.5 points. However, I wouldn’t play it any lower than that number.
Pick: Under 146.5 or better.