Dayton vs. Toledo Odds & Picks: How to Bet Wednesday’s NIT Showdown
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Dayton forward Toumani Camara
- Dayton takes on Toledo in Wednesday NIT action.
- The Flyers were supposed to host the game but now have to hit the road, as the NCAA Tournament took Dayton for the First Four.
- Our staff breaks down how to bet this game below.
Dayton vs. Toledo Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
It’s been a tough week for the Dayton Flyers basketball program.
On Saturday, the Flyers were defeated by Richmond in the A-10 Tournament semifinals. The group lost more than just the game, as star guard Malachi Smith will likely be out for the postseason after injuring his foot on the final play before halftime.
Then, the program saw its NCAA Tournament hopes fall to ashes on Selection Sunday, being the first team left out.
Lastly, Anthony Grant’s team had its home-court advantage snatched away for its first-round matchup in the NIT, as the NCAA Tournament will be using its arena for the play-in games.
Dayton will have to travel as the No. 1 seed to match up with Toledo.
The Rockets posted an impressive 26-7 record while finishing as the MAC regular-season champions.
Having to travel while shorthanded, Dayton will have the odds stacked against it in this matchup.
By Alex Hinton
Dayton just missed out on an NCAA Tournament bid in excruciating fashion. In the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, Dayton held a 15-point lead over Richmond in the second half. Point guard Malachi Smith injured his ankle on the final play of the first half and did not return.
Without Smith, the Flyers were unable to stem the tide when Richmond started to rally. Dayton lost to Richmond 68-64 and landed as the first team out of the NCAA Tournament.
While it may have been waiting for a phone call in case any team needed to drop out of the NCAA Tournament, the NIT will be a positive experience for a young Dayton team that will be one of the best in the A-10 next season.
Eight of Dayton’s top nine players this season are freshmen or sophomores, and overall, it has 11 players with freshmen eligibility.
The best of the bunch is forward DaRon Holmes II. The standout freshman averaged 12.5 points, six rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game on 64.7% shooting from the field.
Forward Toumani Camara, the lone sophomore of the group, is averaging 11.1 points and 6.9 rebounds a night. Smith is averaging 9.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists an evening.
As of writing, there’s no update on the status of his ankle injury.
One issue with having such a young team can be turnovers, and Dayton ranks 243rd in turnover percentage. However, when Dayton gets shots up, it operates efficiently. It ranks 29th in effective field goal percentage, 43rd in 3-point percentage and 46th in 2-point field goal percentage.
Dayton ranks 45th in adjusted defensive efficiency and likes to make its opponents work to get their opportunities. Dayton’s average defensive possessions last 18.4 seconds, 24th longest in the country.
Dayton will need a strong defensive performance if it wants to slow down a potent Toledo offense on the road.
Toledo once again had one of the best mid-major offenses in the entire country.
The Rockets have elite spacing in their ball-screen heavy offense that is run by an excellent backcourt duo of Ryan Rollins and Boise State transfer RayJ Dennis.
They prefer to play with pace and just usually get good looks, which is why they rank 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They can flat-out shoot, usually get open looks through penetration and don’t beat themselves with missed free throws or turnovers, grading out elite in both categories.
The story isn’t as rosy on the defensive end, where the Rockets are a bit more vulnerable, especially at the rim as they can be bullied. They also don’t force turnovers (328th) but at least rarely foul.
Teams can also get plenty of looks from deep against them, although opponents couldn’t seem to make them this season, so regression may loom in that department.
In summary, this is an uber-efficient offensive team with some potential weaknesses that many of the MAC teams simply weren’t able to exploit this year.
Dayton vs. Toledo Betting Pick
The loss of Smith will prove to be too much for the Flyers to overcome.
The freshman guard was the primary ball-handler who made the offense tick. He’s a reliable scoring option, averaging nine points per game while shooting 40% from deep and 78% from the charity stripe. But more importantly, he dished out 175 assists this season, 37% of the team’s total.
The NCAA Tournament stealing home court from Dayton in this matchup will also be a major factor. Now, the FLyers must travel to Toledo, where the Rockets are 13-1 on the season.
Toledo leans on its same starting lineup that has played all 33 games this season. The Rockets are fundamentally sound, hitting their free throws and avoiding self-inflicted errors.
Dayton has had a long few days, and it will show on the court Wednesday night.