The Dayton Flyers take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlotte, NC. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Virginia is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -265. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Dayton vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for December 6, 2025.
Dayton vs Virginia Prediction
My Pick: Dayton +5.5 (Play to +4)
My Dayton vs Virginia best bet is on the Flyers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs. Virginia Odds
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 144.5 -115 / -105 | +215 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 144.5 -115 / -105 | -265 |
- Dayton vs Virginia spread: Virginia -5.5
- Dayton vs Virginia over/under: 144.5 points
- Dayton vs Virginia moneyline: Dayton +215, Virginia -265
Dayton vs Virginia College Basketball Betting Preview
Dayton Basketball
Like the rest of the Atlantic 10, Dayton is off to an impressive start to the 2025-26 campaign. The Flyers hold overtime victories over two Big East teams — Georgetown and Marquette — and both were away from UD Arena.
Bricky shooting (2-for-26 from 3) doomed them against in-state rival Cincinnati, and they came up just short against BYU in Orlando. Overall, though, a 6-2 record has Dayton in position to push for an NCAA Tournament bid. A win over Virginia in Charlotte would greatly add to that momentum.
Dayton’s linchpin is 7-foot-1 French center Amael L’Etang, a potential NBA player who combines rim protection and perimeter shooting in true unicorn fashion. He cleans the defensive glass and can be a weapon as a roller, as well.
His shooting opens up the court for the rest of his teammates, and his +15.4 Net Rating per CBB Analytics matches the eye test. He brings real value on both ends of the court.
The Flyers take a democratic approach to playmaking, with Javon Bennett, Jordan Derkack and De’Shayne Montgomery all boasting assist rates north of 20%.
Montgomery has been a star, tallying double-digit scoring in every game (including 27 last time out against East Tennessee State), and Bennett provides both steadiness and shooting at the lead guard spot.
The glue is Keonte Jones, a pterodactyl-esque athlete that is wildly disruptive on defense. He knows his role on offense, too, and can slash or knock down an occasional open triple. He already has two games with five steals this season, and he’s a strong connector as a passer.
My issue with Dayton right now is Anthony Grant’s insistence on playing Jacob Conner big minutes. Conner is a local from Dayton, and he’s a fun player in theory: 6-foot-10, long, mobile, some guard skills.
But he has never put it together into efficient production, and the Flyers have been demonstrably worse with him on the floor this year. Per CBB Analytics, he has a -16.1 Net Rating, the worst on the team.
Dayton’s best version long-term likely includes giving most of his minutes to promising youngsters Malcolm Thomas and Jaiun Simon.
Virginia Basketball
With a first-year coach, Virginia’s outlook had some wide variance entering the season. That was made even wider by the roster construction: heavy reliance on international imports in the frontcourt, mid-major up-transfers in the backcourt.
How Ryan Odom threaded together those pieces made for a compelling team to analyze.
The early returns have been largely positive, though. The Cavaliers have already picked up two notable wins away from home (Northwestern on a neutral, at Texas), and they're coming off their most impressive performance of the season.
Virginia’s burgeoning offensive onslaught nuked Texas for 1.35 points per possession on the road, lighting it up from the perimeter (12-for-24 from 3) and never turning it over (just seven miscues).
The rotation goes a solid nine deep right now, and everyone in that group can knock down triples. Seven of the nine made at least one against Texas. The two that did not — Sam Lewis and Devin Tillis — shot 44% and 39% from 3 on solid volume last season.
That gives Virginia pristine spacing — an Odom staple — and makes the Cavs’ individual engines incredibly difficult to handle.
Those engines are Malik Thomas and Thijs De Ridder, two inside-out scorers who also excel at drawing contact and getting to the charity stripe.
De Ridder, a Belgian forward with legitimate experience in the Liga ACB (Spain), has been dynamite, scoring consistently and impacting the game in multiple ways.
Thomas is off to a strong start as well, and he knows how to slither into the crevices of a defense that is stretched thin by Virginia’s long-range threats.
The issue for Virginia is the defense. The Cavaliers lack dynamic athletes on the perimeter, and though freshman point guard Chance Mallory is quick as lightning, he sorely lacks size.
Opponents that can get downhill off the bounce have found success putting Virginia’s defense in rotation, even with two elite shot blockers (Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso) lurking at the rim.
Dayton vs. Virginia Betting Analysis
Both teams’ ability to space the court with their five men really stands out when analyzing this matchup. If Grunloh and L’Etang can pull each other away from the rim with the threat of their shooting, the rim could be open season for each squad’s downhill threats.
Odom and Grant could experiment with some cross-matching, but that could create other disadvantages.
Dayton’s Jones will be the best athlete on the floor, and if he can use that advantage to limit De Ridder (and even attack him on the other end), then the Flyers could have a sneaky edge here.
De Ridder has had some fouling issues – he fouled out of back-to-back games against Marshall and Northwestern – and Jones or even the pinball-esque Simon could give him issues.
I don’t have a strong read on the total either way here. Both teams are middle of the pack in offensive pace, and both will take enough 3s to give this game plenty of shooting variance.
As a result, I’ll stick to the side.
A key note on the side: Dayton has excelled as an underdog under Grant. Since 2020, the Flyers are 27-16-1 ATS as a dog, covering games by an average of +5.2 points per game. This season's team is 2-1 ATS in that situation, and the non-cover against Cincinnati was due to outrageous 3-point shooting splits.
Dayton has the size and athleticism to play up against quality competition.
Thus, as much as I love Virginia this season and buy it as a top 25 team, I can't lay this number against a capable Dayton underdog. I'll take the Flyers +5.5. I would confidently take +5, and then cut my unit size at +4.5 or +4.
My Pick: Dayton +5.5 (Play to +4)
