The UIC Flames take on the Murray State Racers in St. Louis, Missouri, in the quarterfinals of the MVC Tournament. Tip-off is set for approximately 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
UIC is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my UIC vs. Murray State predictions and college basketball picks for March 6, 2026.
UIC vs Murray State Predictions and Picks
My Pick: UIC +1 (Play to -2.5)
My UIC vs Murray State best bet is on the Flames to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UIC vs. Murray State Odds, Spread, and Total
| UIC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Murray State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- UIC vs Murray State spread: UIC -1
- UIC vs Murray State over/under: 150.5
- UIC vs Murray State moneyline: UIC -115, Murray State -105
UIC vs Murray State Expert NCAAB Pick
Murray State Betting Preview
Murray State looked like the team to beat early in Missouri Valley play, as it started at 8-0. However, a 4-8 finish to the season placed the Racers in the 4/5 game of Arch Madness.
In all, it was a decent first season for Ryan Miller, but the early-season surge made the finish feel underwhelming.
So, what went wrong for Murray State? Its defense. For a squad with the most length and athleticism in the Valley, the Racers have a woeful defense. From February 1 on (eight games), Murray State ranked 267th in defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
I don't see a solution for the defensive woes here. The issue is that Murray State struggles to defend 2-point shots, allowing opponents to shoot 56% on them. Teams are also hitting 38% from 3 against them in that span, so it's tough to see a turnaround.
The Racers rely heavily on drop coverage, which Miller saw plenty of during his days on Greg McDermott's Creighton staff. It's not nearly as effective without Ryan Kalkbrenner, and we're seeing the consequences.
The Valley has a surplus of strong ball-handling guards who can dominate in the mid-range, which is the perfect way to beat drop coverage.
On offense, the Racers will look to play at a fast pace (20th in adjusted tempo) and shoot 3-pointers (45% 3-point rate).
They'll need the heavy-hitting scorers to show up. Former UIC Flame Javon Jackson leads Murray State with 16 points per game.
But the real key is Roman Domon. He's the most talented shot-creator on the roster, as he's averaging 13 points per game while shooting 49% from the field. At 6-foot-9, Domon's ability to handle the ball and shoot over smaller guards creates a real mismatch.
The role players will also have to show up. KJ Tenner, Mason Miller and Brayden Shorter will play minutes and need to add some points.
UIC Betting Preview
UIC is the best story in the Missouri Valley. After starting 0-4, the Flames appeared destined to finish near the bottom of the league. Instead, they won eight straight games, were near the top of the standings and finished tied for fourth with Murray.
Rob Ehsan will look to lead UIC to its first NCAA Tournament since 2004, and that's made possible by its dominance on one side of the ball.
Defensively, the Flames are imposing. UIC ranks 75th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and has a very aggressive style, resulting in a 20% defensive turnover rate. It forces a slow pace, as it drains 17.3 seconds from the shot clock on average per defensive possession.
Plus, the Flames force teams to shoot 3s, as 46% of opponents' shots come from bonus range. Only 32% of those shots fall, so it's usually a win for UIC's defense when teams toss up late-clock 3s.
I'd expect the Flames' go-to guards — Ahmad Henderson II and Elijah Crawford — to thrive against Murray State's defense.
Crawford, one of the most valuable players in the Valley, was injured during UIC's skid to begin MVC play and got ejected one minute in its most recent game against Murray State. He averages 13.2 points and adds 4.6 assists per game, while shooting 45% from the field.
When Crawford plays, the Flames are 15-4 (including the Murray State game).
Henderson, a Chicago native, is tiny, standing 5-foot-10, 144 pounds, but he's a blur down the court. That'll give him all the tools to exploit Murray's drop coverage.
My one drawback in taking the Flames is their interior play. The massive 6-foot-9, 267-pound King scored 16 points with 14 rebounds and 18 points with 16 rebounds in the two UIC games. The group consisting of Jayce Nathaniel, Abdul Momoh and Mekhi Lowery must band together to contain King.
How To Make UIC vs. Murray State Picks and Best Bets
At this stage, UIC is the flat-out better team. We have about two months of evidence that shows the Flames are better than Murray State, and I believe they have the game plan to take down the more talented Racers.
Plus, shooting is usually a bit rough at the Enterprise Center, and if the shooting is down, you can give UIC an extra advantage.
The Flames don't care whether the perimeter shots are falling; they want to grind it out and make it ugly. Murray State is the team that needs to shoot it well to win.
My Pick: UIC +1 (Play to -2.5)
