The NCAA Tournament is just around the corner, meaning the madness is about to begin. Last year, we saw an incredibly chalky bracket with all four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four, and three No. 2 seeds in the Elite Eight, with one No. 3 seed (Texas Tech) crashing the party.
However, Texas Tech barely got to the Elite Eight as it beat No. 10 seed Arkansas by just two points in overtime to get to that round. Even in a chalky year, we still almost got a No. 10 seed in the Elite Eight.
So, what are the odds that a double-digit seed makes the Elite Eight in this year's NCAA Tournament? Let's check in on that exact market at Polymarket.
Double-Digit Seed to Make the Elite Eight: Polymarket Predictions
Truth be told, there are no Arkansas-esque teams this year. No team has the combination of the talent of a much better seed, a Hall-of-Fame-bound coach, and many games of experience against top teams in conference play that the Razorbacks had last year.
However, if you're looking to make an Elite Eight case on the path a team will face, there's a section of the bracket to target. In the bottom half of the East region, UConn is a No. 2 seed that lost to Creighton and Marquette (two teams that were nowhere near the NCAA Tournament picture), while Michigan State is a No. 3 seed that can struggle in half-court offense.
But which teams may face UConn or Michigan State? No. 11 seed USF is the more likely team, as the Bulls are a popular upset pick over Louisville in the first round, and play a style that's tough to prepare for in a few days. No. 10 seed UCF also has a chance if you think UConn is vulnerable, but I don't think UCF is getting past a red-hot UCLA team in the first round.
Going elsewhere in the bracket, the bottom half of the West region also has an intriguing angle. No. 10 seed Missouri is playing in its own backyard in St. Louis. The Tigers were notably much better at home than on the road this year, and the de facto home-court advantage could factor in here.
Mizzou is essentially a toss-up against Miami (FL), and if the Tigers get past the Hurricanes, they would just need to pull off an upset against No. 2 seed Purdue to reach the Sweet Sixteen, where they would play a BYU team sans Richie Saunders, a Gonzaga team (potentially) without Braden Huff, or a fellow double-digit seed (Texas or Kennesaw State). However, the Boilermakers are hot coming off a Big Ten Tournament title, and I am not a huge fan of picking against them this year, despite the overblown narrative of Purdue choking in March.
No. 10 seed Santa Clara is an interesting choice at the bottom of the Midwest region because the Broncos are a tough matchup given their size. But No. 2 seed Iowa State and No. 3 Virginia are likely to shut down that run.
No. 12 Akron or No. 13 Hofstra are true longshots with a chance because of the availability issues for No. 5 seed Texas Tech and No. 4 seed Alabama, but you're then banking on one of those two to not only pull off a big first round (and maybe second round) upset, but you're also taking them to beat No. 1 seed Michigan (or a team that beat Michigan) in the Sweet Sixteen.
In the South, No. 11 seed VCU has the easiest potential path, as No. 6 seed North Carolina isn't near its peak without Caleb Wilson. However, No. 3 seed Illinois is probably too good on offense to lose to a team like VCU in the Round of 32, and also probably wouldn't lose to No. 10 seed Texas A&M if the Aggies somehow rallied past No. 2 seed Houston.
Pick: With all that being said, I'm leaning no because I can't pinpoint a specific team I like. It wouldn't shock me if a few of these teams made a run to the Sweet Sixteen, but the Cinderella run continuing beyond that is unlikely.
What is Polymarket?
Different than a traditional sportsbook, Polymarket allows users to make predictions across a wide variety of markets, including sports, entertainment, politics, and even weather.
