The Duke Blue Devils take on the UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my Duke vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for February 7, 2026.
Duke vs UNC Prediction
My Pick: UNC +5.5
My Duke vs UNC best bet is on the Tar Heels to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Duke vs UNC Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
- Duke vs UNC spread: Duke -5.5
- Duke vs UNC over/under: 150.5 points
- Duke vs UNC moneyline: Duke -250, UNC +205
Duke vs UNC College Basketball Betting Preview
Duke Basketball
Duke is absolutely rolling right now. The Blue Devils haven't lost in 2026 and are 6-2 ATS over their last eight games.
In doing so, they've climbed all the way to No. 3 nationally in KenPom, a reflection of just how consistently dominant they’ve become. Jon Scheyer’s team may not even be a finished product yet either, as the head coach is still actively tinkering.
That experimentation has shown up in the starting lineup. Duke opened with Cayden Boozer and Nik Khamenia against Virginia Tech before reverting to the usual look with Caleb Foster and Dame Sarr versus Boston College.
Most elite teams don't meddle like that in February, but Duke can, in large part because Cameron Boozer is the best player in the country. Boozer is immune to bad games, effortlessly churning out 23 points, 10 rebounds and four assists night after night while anchoring everything Duke does offensively and defensively.
The frontcourt support has been excellent as well. Patrick Ngongba II and Maliq Brown form a versatile, high-end center duo, with Ngongba ranking a lofty No. 6 nationally in EvanMiya’s player ratings. Brown, meanwhile, gives Duke a different look: more switchable, more aggressive and devastating as a help defender.
The true ceiling swing piece might be Isaiah Evans. When his perimeter shot is falling, Duke becomes borderline unfair to defend. He's only 6-of-26 (23.1%) from deep in the last five games, so an explosion could be coming.
Defensively, the Blue Devils have taken a real leap. With Brown’s versatility and Sarr fully back in rhythm, Duke can switch, play drop or sprinkle in zone at exactly the right moments.
They dominate the glass (top-20 in rebound rate on both ends) and control the paint (top-20 nationally in 2-point percentage on offense and defense). They may not quite be in the stratosphere of last season's squad, but these Blue Devils have a clear national title ceiling.
UNC Basketball
UNC is clearly ascending. Carolina has won four straight, covered three of those four, and even in the lone non-cover, the Heels were up 32 points on Syracuse before letting their foot off the gas. Their trajectory is pointing up, and more importantly, it feels like they've found the right lineup combinations to maximize their potential.
That starts in the backcourt. Over the last five games, Derek Dixon has become a fixture. Hubert Davis has moved him into the starting lineup, and he's averaging 29.0 minutes per game, a sharp jump from his 19.2 minutes per game season-long mark.
His playmaking has steadied the ship, allowing Carolina to reshuffle other pieces. Jarin Stevenson and Luka Bogavac have both shifted to the bench and, to their credit, have embraced those roles, providing scoring punch without disrupting flow.
On the wing, Seth Trimble continues to be a reliable two-way presence, defending at a high level while contributing just enough offense to keep defenses honest.
Still, the heartbeat of this team resides in the frontcourt. Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar have been immense in both size and impact. Carolina has smartly built its defensive identity around them, leaning heavily into drop coverage to protect the rim and control space.
The result: Opponents are forced into long 2s, with UNC ranking third nationally in longest average 2-point attempt distance allowed.
That scheme shows up in other numbers. The Heels don’t gamble, ranking 340th in turnover rate forced, but they also don’t bail teams out, sitting seventh nationally in free-throw rate allowed.
With the rotation clarified and the defense playing to its strengths, this version of UNC looks increasingly dangerous as March approaches.
Duke vs UNC Betting Analysis
I’m grabbing UNC +5.5 in what’s obviously one of the sport’s biggest and most familiar rivalry spots. Historical matchup data doesn’t offer much of an edge; the last 10 meetings are basically a wash (5-5 ATS, 6-4 to the over), and the recent year-to-year swings have been extreme.
Solely in terms of straight-up wins, Duke swept all three meetings last season, UNC swept in 2024 and Duke ran the table again in 2023. There’s no trend to lean on, which pushes this handicap squarely toward matchups and current form.
That’s where UNC stands out to me. The Heels are one of the few teams in the country that can actually match Duke’s size – and in some lineups, exceed it. Duke ranks second nationally in average height, per KenPom; UNC sits right behind the Blue Devils at third.
The Heels won't get physically overwhelmed, which immediately raises their floor.
The frontcourt chess match is fascinating. The NBA-prospect head-to-head between Boozer and Wilson is a huge storyline. Boozer is the more polished, mistake-proof force and probably has the edge overall, but Wilson’s athleticism and length give him a real chance to stress Boozer in space and on the glass.
Schematically, this lines up well for UNC defensively. Duke’s offense has been extremely rim-and-3 heavy, sitting in just the fourth percentile nationally in mid-range attempt frequency, per CBB Analytics. Carolina’s drop coverage and paint size are designed to funnel shots into that area, forcing uncomfortable shots late in possessions.
I'll take the home dog here, especially as it currently sits above five. The Heels have a chance to get the win outright, so sprinkling the moneyline intrigues me as well. Let’s hope for another classic matchup in the sport’s best rivalry.
My Pick: UNC +5.5
