NCAAB Odds, Pick for FAU vs Memphis: AAC Betting Guide

Florida Atlantic was unable to rally at South Florida last Sunday, but it bounced back at home with a 80-70 victory over SMU on Thursday night. With the win, the Owls improved to 21-6 and 11-3 in AAC. But they face an uphill battle in claiming a share of the AAC regular season title in their first year in the conference. FAU may get some help from SMU on Sunday, but first it must handle its own business when it heads to Memphis for a tough road test.

Memphis also began the year with AAC title aspirations after a 15-2 start. Since then, it has lost six of its last 10 games and slid to sixth place in the league. Most bracket projections have the Tigers well outside of the NCAA Tournament field. A win over the Owls, a projected 8-seed at the moment, would certainly help.

To do so, Memphis will likely have to outscore FAU. This matchup features two of the highest three scoring teams in the AAC.

The quartet of Johnell Davis, Vladislav Goldin, Alijah Martin and Nicholas Boyd led FAU to the Final Four last season. They have each taken a leap this season and it has led to a high-powered Owls attack. FAU averages 83.3 points per game, which ranks second in the AAC. They are also 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and have had the most efficient offense in conference play.

Davis, Goldin, Martin, and Boyd are each double-digit scorers. Davis leads the way at 18.3 points per game and is the fourth-leading scorer in the conference. He's shooting 45.5% from 3 and averages about two makes from deep per game. Martin and Boyd are also quality 3-point shooters and reserve guard Jalen Gaffney is shooting 43.5% from distance off the bench.

The Owls shoot 36.5% from 3 as a group. However, they are more than comfortable hurting a team inside as well. They rank 24th in the nation in 2-point percentage (55.5%), which is where Goldin does most of his damage. Over two of Goldin's 6.4 rebounds per game are on the offensive end, and FAU ranks 38th in offensive rebounding percentage.

Goldin provides most of the size and bulk for the Owls, who space the floor around him with a four-guard lineup. However, it is the 6-foot-4 Davis who leads the team with 6.6 rebounds per game. The lack of length can hurt the Owls on the glass defensively and when they need to get stops.

FAU is 212th in defensive rebounding percentage and 101st in adjusted defensive efficiency. Although they are 4-3 on the road in conference play, the Owls are allowing 80.1 points per game in those games.

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While not as efficient as FAU, Memphis's offense does not struggle to score either. It is averaging 80 points per game and is right behind FAU for third in the conference. It helps that the Tigers get up and down the court. They are 22nd in adjusted tempo and average just 15.5 seconds per offensive possession.

It also helps having David Jones. The senior forward is the AAC's leading scorer at 21.6 points per game. He is also shooting 40% from 3 and is the team's leading rebounder with 7.4 boards per game. Point guard Jahvon Quinerly puts up 13.3 points per game and is fourth in the AAC with 4.9 assists. Kansas State transfer Nae'Qwan Tomlin has been a factor since becoming eligible as well, averaging 11.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. He has scored at least 16 points in three of his past four games.

Memphis averages over eight 3s per game and makes 52% of its 2-point attempts. However, it often hurts itself with turnovers. Memphis is averaging 13.7 turnovers per game and ranks 284th in turnover percentage at the offensive end. That is the main black mark on an offense that is 73rd in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The turnovers have not helped on the defensive end either, leading to easy buckets in transition. The Tigers are 103rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and ninth in conference play. Defending the 3-point line has been a major issue this season. Memphis is allowing 9.3 3s per game, 354th worst in the country, and opponents are shooting nearly 35% from behind the arc. The Tigers are also 328th in defensive rebounding percentage, which could prove to be problematic in this matchup.

Memphis does excel forcing turnovers and blocking shots. It is 28th in the country in steals per game (8.7) and 35th in blocks (4.8). Four Tigers are averaging over a steal per game while Jones leading the way with 2.1 steals per game.

In Davis and Jones, this matchup features two of the top four scorers in the AAC. However, they both have several teammates that are capable of filling it up as well. Combined, the teams are averaging 163.3 points per game. Here, we only need 158 points to go over the total.

This game should feature a lot of 3s considering the offenses on both sides and Memphis' porous perimeter defense. Regardless of whether they are falling or not, this game will have a lot of possessions. Memphis wants to play a fast pace, particularly in front of its own fans, and FAU is fine playing in an up-and-down game as well.

The over is 16-10-1 in Memphis' games this season. It is has also hit in two of FAU's last three road games. I expect each of these trends to continue Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Over 157.5