The Furman Paladins take on the East Tennessee State Buccaneers in Asheville, NC, in the SoCon Tournament final. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
ETSU is favored by 1.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 139.5 points.
Here’s my Furman vs. ETSU predictions and college basketball picks for March 9, 2026.
Furman vs ETSU Prediction
My Pick: Furman +1.5
My Furman vs ETSU best bet is on the Paladins to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Furman vs. ETSU Odds
| Furman Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 139.5 -110 / -110 | OFF |
| ETSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 139.5 -110 / -110 | OFF |
- Furman vs ETSU spread: ETSU -1.5
- Furman vs ETSU over/under: 139.5 points
Furman vs ETSU College Basketball Betting Preview
Furman Basketball
Furman feels a lot like Northern Iowa, which won the MVC Tournament. Based on talent and coaching pedigree, Furman is much better than your typical six-seed.
However, injuries ravaged the Paladins for months, as Cooper Bowser missed 10 games, Asa Thomas missed five, Tom House missed two and Abijah Franklin missed 11.
That left Bob Richey to use a patchwork lineup, which led to inconsistent results.
Now healthy, Furman is the most talented team in the league. Does that mean it'll cruise to a win? Absolutely not, but it helps.
When East Tennessee State and Furman met in Greenville two weeks ago, the Paladins lost by nine at home — and Barkley didn't play. Furman went 6-of-33 from deep, and that'll be the key once again.
The Dins attempt 3s on 46% of their field goal attempts and make just 32% of them. Thomas is the best shooter for Furman, making 39% from deep. The issue is Alex Wilkins, Charles Johnston and House, who all shoot below 30% from deep and each have over 110 attempts.
Wilkins is a stud, don't get it twisted. He's just not a great shooter — yet. He should dominate against the smaller East Tennessee State guards. At 6-foot-5, Wilkins can get to the hoop at will and dish to shooters. We'll see if Furman hits them.
Furman is 186th in defensive efficiency, but that's a bit misleading. Bowser is one of the top defenders in the SoCon, and him missing six weeks did irreparable damage to their numbers.
The Paladins use their interior length to limit teams to 50% shooting on 2s, and they also limit teams to 32% shooting from deep.
ETSU Basketball
Defending the interior is the key. Bowser towers over Morris and could keep him on the struggle bus. Barkley is also much smaller than Johnston, who isn't a very good defender, but Barkley will have to score through him.
Sunday was the purge for many one-seeds in conference tournaments. The same fate looked ready to hit East Tennessee State, as it trailed Western Carolina by 18 points in the first half.
That’s until the Bucs clawed back and finally re-gained the lead on a Blake Barkley and-one with 39 seconds left. Now it’s one game from the Big Dance.
The Buccaneers have two key offensive strengths. One is limiting turnovers, as they boast a 15% turnover rate and have solid guard stability with Allen Strothers and Jaylen Smith. The other is their interior scoring, as Barkley and Cam Morris III are the primary reasons why East Tennessee State shoots 57% on 2s.
Barkley leads the Buccaneers with 14.5 points per game, and he can score inside and out. Morris is just 1-for-5 from the field in two SoCon tourney games, but he'll get on track. He averaged 13.7 points per game in the regular season, so I imagine Morris is chomping at the bit to get right.
The Buccaneers will need to focus on forcing turnovers, as they did all season, posting an 18% turnover rate. The Bucs have smaller guards, which can lead to opponents getting past them and scoring inside, leading to East Tennessee State ranking 211th in 2-point field goal defense.
One thing East Tennessee State lacks is shooters. The only two players in the rotation shooting above 34% are Barkley and bench marksmen Maki Johnson, who hits 40% from deep.
Furman vs. ETSU Betting Analysis
I'm taking Furman here.
You might think I'm crazy for taking Furman, which lost twice to ETSU in the regular season. Hear me out, though. The Paladins won't shoot 6-of-33 from deep again, and in the second game, Furman didn't have Thomas and went 6-of-29 from deep.
The luck has to shift in Furman's direction. Even if the Dins shoot their season average of 32% from 3, I think that's enough to beat East Tennessee State.
My Pick: Furman +1.5
