Georgetown vs Marquette Odds, Predictions: Why Total is in Play

Georgetown vs Marquette Odds, Predictions: Why Total is in Play article feature image

Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Kam Jones (Marquette)

Georgetown vs Marquette Odds

Saturday, Jan. 7
2 p.m. ET
Georgetown Odds
-105o / -115u
Marquette Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Georgetown Hoyas will head to Fiserv Forum on Saturday trying to right a ship that is very, very far off course.

Georgetown's loss to Villanova on Wednesday was its 25th consecutive regular season conference loss. The last time Patrick Ewing's team beat a Big East opponent in the regular season was March 2, 2021.

Unfortunately, the Hoyas will be up against a Golden Eagles team that is third in the Big East.

Marquette is coming off a huge road win at St. John's that featured its defense stepping up big in the second half and the team coming back from a seven-point halftime deficit. The Golden Eagles' 4-1 record in conference play is their best start since the 2018-19 season.

Is there any reason to believe Marquette won't roll through the Hoyas at home on Saturday? Or is there another bet to target?

Georgetown Hoyas

It's been a tough first half of the season for Ewing and his team, as the Hoyas are currently on a six-game losing streak and have yet to win a single game on the road.

The Hoyas are scoring 72.4 points per game, but are outside the top 250 in effective field goal percentage.

One positive to note, though, is how great they have been when it comes to mid-range shooting. The Hoyas take shots from the mid-range at a higher rate than anywhere else on the court.

It's also where they are best, hitting 39.8% from the mid-range.

And while they struggle offensively, injuries haven't helped.

Brandon Murray, Wayne Bristol Jr. and Bryson Mozone are all questionable for the game against Marquette. My biggest concern would be Murray, who leads the Hoyas in usage. If he's out, it could get ugly quickly for Georgetown.

Most concerning, though, is that the defense has costed Georgetown more games than its offensive woes or even injuries. The Hoyas are 282nd in adjusted efficiency and allow opposing teams to post an effective field goal percentage of 52.7%.

They have been among the worst in college basketball when it comes to defending at the rim, allowing teams to hit 71.4%.

That's something Marquette can take advantage of.

Marquette Golden Eagles

The Marquette offense has been humming all season, ranking top-10 in the nation in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage.

The Golden Eagles' offense is led by Kam Jones, a top-10 scorer in the Big East who is averaging 16.1 points per game.

But three other players are averaging double-digit points per game for Marquette.

David Joplin has been specifically huge off the bench, averaging 10.2 points in just under 20 minutes a game.

One major factor I'll be interested in for the Golden Eagles in this matchup is the amount of turnovers they are able to force.

One of the few bright spots for the Hoyas has been their ability to maintain ball security, averaging just 12.3 turnovers per game. Marquette, however, has been forcing 15.9 and averaging 19.4 points off of turnovers per game.

A lack of turnovers could affect the Marquette scoring to some degree. The only question is: how much?

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Georgetown vs. Marquette Betting Pick

Georgetown has been absolutely awful at both ends of the floor, and more importantly against the spread. The Hoyas are just 5-11 ATS on the season, including 1-4 in conference games.

I had originally intended to back Marquette here, but at -18.5, this number is just too high in my opinion.

The Golden Eagles are ranked 79th in Adjusted Tempo, and Georgetown won't be doing much to slow them down (120th).

That — paired with the fact that the Golden Eagles will be up against the 292nd-worst defense in college basketball — leads me to believe this game will be going over the total.

Marquette is fresh off of dropping the most points an opponent has ever scored at St. John's. I expect it to push the envelope once again against an even worse defense.

Back the over as high as 156.

Pick: Over 156 or Better

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Nick Sterling
Jul 13, 2024 UTC