College Basketball Odds & Pick for Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s: Our Top NCAA Tournament Pick

Let's take a look at the Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's odds and make a prediction for Friday's March Madnesscollege basketball game.

In a classic No. 5-seed vs. No. 12-seed matchup, Saint Mary's takes on Grand Canyon in the final game of the First Round. The Gaels enter fresh off a WCC Championship, while the Lopes rolled through the WAC.

This is one of the most interesting first-round matchups, and one where Saint Mary's could find itself on upset alert. The slow-paced Gaels draw a physical, downhill attacking Grand Canyon squad led by superstar Tyon Grant-Foster. The Lopes love to push it, which makes this a clash of styles.

Grand Canyon is a potential bracket-busting squad, as few teams are more well-rounded and as talented as the Lopes.

Grand Canyon has been battle-tested, with non-conference wins over San Francisco and San Diego State. Its offense is downhill, physical and prefers slugfests.

Plenty of players returned after last year's first-round exit to Gonzaga, but the addition of Grant-Foster took this team to another level.

He's the do-it-all talent, leading the Lopes in scoring (19.8). He thrives attacking the rim, but he also has the ability to knock down a couple of 3s.

His story is also perhaps the greatest entering the tournament. This is Grant-Foster's third team, transferring from Kansas as a highly-touted prospect to DePaul. He suffered cardiac arrest in the first game of the season, starting a 16-month recovery.

That has led him to GCU, where he guided the Lopes to their first-ever win against a ranked opponent and now a chance to push deep into the NCAA Tournament.

The Lopes' offense ranks fifth in FTA/FGA and top-30 when it comes to creating second-chance opportunities. They prefer a battle in the trenches and winning the free throw battle is ever-so-crucial, especially when it comes to late-game execution.

Their biggest issue comes with their aggression, and that leads to turnovers. But the Lopes received a pretty fair draw against Saint Mary's and then — if they were to advance — either Alabama or Charleston. All three of those teams don't force turnovers.

The slugfest mindset translates to the defensive end as well, where the Lopes rank inside the top 40 in turnover rate and top-10 in both effective field goal percentage and 2-point defense. GCU funnels opponents off the 3-point line, where its length awaits inside.

Grant-Foster is a defensive nightmare, too, averaging over three steals/blocks per game.

Saint Mary’s lost five of its first eight. Since then, the Gaels have been near untouchable, winning 23 of 25.

Saint Mary’s won the WCC Tournament and the season series against Gonzaga. The Gaels are a slow-paced squad that prefers rock fights, ranking 358th in tempo. This isn't an offense that will wow you, rather their defense is a brick wall and extremely difficult to break down.

This is a top-five defense in terms of effective field goal percentage and rebounding. Mitchell Saxen is a force around the rim and the top rim protector in the conference.

The eventual downfall of this Gaels team is running into foul trouble in the frontcourt. Saxen is the starting center, but Joshua Jefferson’s loss is a significant one on both ends of the floor.

Mason Forbes has filled in for the 6-foot-8 sophomore — who's out for the season — but he suffered a hard fall in the WCC title game. His status remains unknown, though he should suit up.

Tack on 7-foot-1 Harry Wessels missing the final five games of the season, and this Saint Mary’s frontcourt is ever-so-thin.

The Gaels are top-10 in limiting 3-point attempts — just 29% of all their field goals come from distance — funneling opponents inside toward contested shots. SMC is fourth in 2-point defense.

The Gaels won't force many turnovers, though. The Gaels sit around the 200th mark, opting to play straight up and not as aggressively in the passing lanes.

The offense, on the other hand, has been on fire from 3 in the last month, shooting 41.7% from distance. You would assume negative regression is on the horizon for a Gaels team that shoots 35.5% from 3.

Despite only having Saxen as a physical big, this Saint Mary’s team is a great offensive rebounding group. Saxen is 11th in the country in offensive rebounding, leading a Gaels team that grabs nearly 40% of all second-chance opportunities.

Aside from poor free-throw shooting — 67.4% as a team — Saint Mary’s doesn’t have any real weaknesses on offense. Aidan Mahaney is the star (13.9 points) and the true X-factor in tight games. He had 23 points in the WCC finals.

From a continuity and coaching standpoint, few teams are as comfortable and well-coached as Saint Mary’s.

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This is one of my favorite underdog spots of the First Round. This Grand Canyon team shouldn't be slept on, and given the condition of Saint Mary's — shorthanded frontcourt and a snail's pace offensively — possessions will be limited and points could come at a premium.

Grand Canyon is well-equipped to take on Saint Mary's length, and the Lopes' physicality and downhill aggression should prove to be the difference.

The Lopes' biggest issue on the offensive end comes in the turnover department, and that's an area where the Gaels' defense lacks.

Look for established possessions out of a strong offensive group, one that's experienced and ready for its first ever win in the NCAA Tournament.

I'm more than happy to take the points and put my trust in Grant-Foster here.

Pick: Grand Canyon +5.5

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