Iowa vs Michigan State Odds, Pick: Sparty By Double Digits

Iowa and Michigan State square off in their only scheduled battle of the season on Tuesday.

The Hawkeyes are all but drawing dead at this point for an NCAA Tournament berth, but there’s a modicum of hope if they can somehow win out (or close to it) over their final five games.

Sparty looks to finally be in good shape for an at-large bid, but there are no guarantees. Tom Izzo and Co. need to keep stacking wins to seal a berth and keep climbing the seed lines.

Izzo and Fran McCaffery have been around for a while and have faced each other 22 times as head coaches. Surprisingly, the ATS record is tied at 11-11, though Iowa has covered four straight and won three of the past four games outright.

Iowa’s top-15 offense will be put to the test against Sparty’s top-15 defense. Here's Iowa vs. Michigan State odds and a pick.

Offense is the catalyst to wins for Iowa, as it has been for McCaffery’s entire tenure. The Hawkeyes are the nation’s 13th-best offense on an adjusted efficiency basis and rank in the top five in the Big Ten.

The other end has been a major issue, however. Iowa’s defense grades out as the Big Ten’s worst, allowing 1.15 points per possession. The Hawkeyes are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league by rate and rank 13th in 2-point field goal percentage allowed.

Winning on the road has been a challenge for Iowa, as the Hawkeyes are just 3-6 against the spread this season and 2-7 straight up. It won’t get any easier facing a Michigan State team that's a muscular 11-4 against the number at home.

McCaffery’s offense will need to be firing on all cylinders to beat a stingy MSU defense. Iowa runs a smart motion offense that utilizes off-ball cuts as well as any team in the country. The Hawkeyes, as a team, own a high assist rate and prefer to beat opponents with the pass as opposed to with the dribble.

But transition is where Iowa does its most damage. The fastest team in the Big Ten, Iowa thrives on the run, ranking 20th nationally in transition frequency and seventh in transition points per possession, per Synergy. The Hawkeyes want to maximize possessions and outscore their opposition.

However, Michigan State has arguably the best transition defense in the country. Only Virginia and FAU have allowed a lower rate of transition opportunities, per Synergy, and the Spartans rank eighth nationally in points per possession allowed in the open floor.

It will be a true “strength vs. strength” battle in East Lansing.

A preseason top-five team, Michigan State is finally hitting its stride, winning eight of its last 10 games and covering five of its last six. The Spartans are dangerous at home and haven’t dropped a contest at the Breslin Center since Dec. 5.

Despite its tempo ranks, Michigan State utilizes transition well and is an opportunistic running team. The Spartans rank 15th nationally in points per possession in transition, per Synergy.

Overall, the Spartan attack is a balanced one that can beat opponents in multiple ways. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are both aces off ball screens and can easily create drive-and-kick opportunities.

Like Iowa, Sparty moves the ball well and rarely turns it over. Its 3-point shooting has improved greatly in Big Ten play, but the Spartans use the long ball as an asset rather than a crutch. Izzo’s motion offense is adept at freeing shooters off off-ball screens.

Defensively, Iowa does nothing well. Michigan State should have no problem scoring against the porous Hawkeye defense. The game and spread will ultimately come down to whether Sparty’s defense can make enough stops.

A double-digit spread is massive for a power conference game, but this one could play to a high possession count. Michigan State doesn’t mind running and likely won’t look to slow this one down offensively.

Sparty’s transition defense numbers are too good to ignore. If Iowa can't get easy buckets in the open floor, scoring will become a challenge. If Izzo shuts the water off to Iowa’s transition, this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

It’s worth noting Michigan State has beaten conference opponents by double digits multiple times this season. The Spartans took down Michigan twice by 10 and 19, Penn State by 31, Rutgers by 18 and Minnesota by 10.

Iowa’s defense will be the worst Michigan State has faced since Stony Brook on Dec. 30. There’s an avenue to a blowout here.

Pick: Michigan State -10

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