The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, MN. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on BTN.
Iowa is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 132.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Minnesota prediction and college basketball picks for January 6, 2026.
Iowa vs Minnesota Prediction
My Pick: Minnesota +5.5 (Play to +5)
My Iowa vs Minnesota best bet is on the Gophers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 132.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 132.5 -110 / -110 | +185 |
- Iowa vs Minnesota spread: Iowa -5
- Iowa vs Minnesota over/under: 132.5 points
- Iowa vs Minnesota moneyline: Iowa -225, Minnesota +185
Iowa vs Minnesota NCAAB Betting Preview
Iowa Basketball
Iowa has gotten off to an excellent start under first-year head coach Ben McCollum, and though the Hawkeyes have done their best work against inferior foes, they still look like a formidable foe in Big Ten play.
Iowa enters this matchup at 12-2, with its only blemishes coming on the road against elite opponents in Michigan State and Iowa State – and the Hawkeyes nearly won in Ames.
The engine of everything Iowa does is Bennett Stirtz, one of the most indispensable players in Division I. Stirtz has consistently elevated his game against stronger competition, with his usage rate climbing in high-leverage spots while maintaining elite efficiency.
In four games classified as KenPom Tier A or B, Stirtz is shooting a blistering 53.3% from 3, showing both shot-making gravity and decision-making under pressure. He's a killer late in the shot clock, using a variety of shifty step-back moves to get his jumper off.
What has started to make Iowa look like a true high-end NCAA Tournament team is the depth of complementary skill around Stirtz.
Tate Sage, Isaia Howard, Cooper Koch and Alvaro Folgueiras all provide legitimate offensive punch, spacing the floor with high-IQ movement, shooting and connective passing. Iowa’s offense rarely stagnates because McCollum can flood the court with unselfish skill.
Defensively, Iowa has been disruptive. The Hawkeyes excel at forcing turnovers thanks to the athleticism and versatility of Howard, Tavion Banks and Cam Manyawu, creating extra possessions that help offset some slight deficiencies on the glass.
That primary concern – a meaningful lack of interior size and strength – could end up a fatal flaw at times in the Big Ten. Michigan State, in particular, exposed Iowa inside.
Minnesota Basketball
Relative to expectations, Minnesota has looked solid thus far under first-year head coach Niko Medved, and its resume is stronger than the raw record might suggest.
Minnesota sits at 9-5 overall, but all five losses have come away from home against top-100 competition, indicating the Gophers’ ability to take care of business against teams it should be beating.
Conference play has added to the optimism, as the Gophers have actually picked up some needle-moving victories. They're 2-1 in Big Ten action, highlighted by a home win over Indiana and an impressive road victory at Northwestern this past weekend.
Those results underscore a team that already looks comfortable executing Medved’s system against quality opponents.
Stylistically, this group is unmistakably in the Medved mold. Minnesota currently leads the country in assist rate, per KenPom, a testament to elite off-ball movement, precise spacing and well-designed half-court actions.
The ball rarely sticks, and shots are generated through reads rather than off-the-dribble improvisation.
The biggest beneficiary of that structure has been perimeter assassin Cade Tyson, who's enjoyed a full-blown career renaissance after a disappointing season at North Carolina. Freed by movement and defined roles, Tyson has looked confident, efficient and impactful.
Medved also brought continuity with him from Fort Collins, as Jaylen Crocker-Johnson has seamlessly transitioned into a key contributor. Add in Gopher holdover Isaac Asuma, and Minnesota has multiple weapons who have quickly optimized the system.
The major concern is up front. An injury to Robert Vaihola — a dominant rebounder and physical interior presence — has left Minnesota thin inside, and replacing his two-way impact has been difficult.
Still, with cohesion, ball movement and growing confidence, this looks like a program laying a strong foundation with upside to spring a couple of upsets against better opponents.
Iowa vs. Minnesota Betting Analysis
This matchup carries some sneaky intrigue beyond the Big Ten standings. It's the first head-to-head between McCollum and Medved, two former Drake coaches who each quickly elevated the Bulldogs during their lone seasons in Des Moines.
That shared background shows up stylistically here: both rosters were built with moneyball-like efficiency in mind, leaning into skill, versatility and fit rather than overwhelming NIL-driven talent accumulation.
From a matchup standpoint, Minnesota isn't constructed to punish Iowa’s weakness in the paint, particularly with the absence of Vaihola. That limits the Gophers’ ability to consistently generate easy points at the rim.
Still, this game projects as a grind. Both teams rank in the bottom 15 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, and possessions should be deliberate, physical and highly execution-based.
Iowa clearly owns the best player on the floor in Stirtz, and that likely tilts the outright result toward the Hawkeyes. Stirtz’s shot-making and late-clock creation give Iowa the clearest path to success in closing time.
But Minnesota can stay competitive here in such a crawling game in The Barn.
At home, the Gophers have already shown real bite, highlighted by a signature win over Indiana to kick off Big Ten play. This is a feisty, well-coached group that defends, competes and shortens games.
In a low-possession environment, points carry extra value.
I’ll take Minnesota +6.5 here, playable down to +5, expecting a tight, physical contest that stays within a possession or two late.
My Pick: Minnesota +5.5 (Play to +5)
