Brackets won’t start busting until next month, but the smart money is already on the move.
March Madness futures markets allow bettors to speculate on a wide variety of outcomes from punching a ticket (bubble market) to the conference affiliation of the program that ends up cutting down the nets. The common theme for most of these markets is that bettors are targeting winning outcomes, but what if you wanted to fade a team instead?
Here's one nationally ranked squad that I think is headed for a Big Dance blowup.
Texas Tech to NOT Reach Round of 32
Kalshi 47¢, +117 Implied ML
Texas Tech possesses the most impressive three-pack of wins in college basketball this season. The Red Raiders defeated Duke on a neutral floor, Houston on their home floor and Arizona on the road. All three of those opponents are likely to secure No. 1 seeds next month.
The reigning Big 12 Player of the Year — JT Toppin — was the catalyst in each upset, averaging 23 points and 11 rebounds against the Blue Devils, Cougars and Wildcats. He shot an ultra-efficient 56% from the floor in those games, serving as the Batman to Christian Anderson’s Robin.
With double teams flowing to Toppin, his teammates shot 39% from long range against those AP top-five opponents.
Sadly, Toppin tore his ACL last week. His absence would be felt on any team, but head coach Grant McCasland has preferred a short bench this season. The Red Raiders, pre-Toppin injury, were the second-most starter-reliant power-conference team from a minutes perspective.
The loss of Toppin will thrust Luke Bamgboye, Marial Akuentok and Josiah Moseley into significant playing time. They average just 8.9 points per game as a trio.
Bamgboye is a defensive stopper, reaching EvanMiya’s 99th percentile as both a shot blocker and an overall defender. But the drop off offensively from Toppin to these three reserves can't be overstated.
Teams will also be able to key on Anderson, sending more double teams at him.
This is problematic because, as gifted as he is as a scorer and facilitator, he can be careless with the basketball. No player in Big 12 conference play turns it over more than Anderson (3.5), and I expect that number to spike in the coming weeks.
If current projections hold, Texas Tech will land a four-seed, and this season's 13-seed crop is potentially as strong as it has been in years.
Hawaii has tremendous frontcourt size, the best defensive metrics amongst low-majors (both inside and outside the 3-point arc), and the Rainbows can rebound with any team. Other potential 13-seeds — High Point and Stephen F. Austin — have been red hot in the past two months, boasting a combined record of 36-2 since mid-December.
Suffice to say, an undermanned Texas Tech will have its hands full from the moment it begins its March Madness journey.
This assumes, of course, that McCasland’s team doesn’t implode down the stretch. The Red Raiders’ final four opponents are all currently projected to make the Field of 68, and if the Big 12 Tournament started today, Texas Tech would receive the five-seed and play the winner of Arizona State-Oklahoma State.
The Sun Devils just beat Texas Tech 72-67 in the game that Toppin went down with his knee injury.
At full strength, Texas Tech likely would've opened as a 10- to 12-point favorite against a typical 13-seed. But a late-season slide, a drop down the seed line and a palpable loss of confidence could leave the Red Raiders laying only a possession or two in the Round of 64.
At plus-money, that’s a vulnerable favorite worth fading now.
Kalshi is legal in most states, and if you want to get started, be sure to use our Kalshi promo code.
