Big Monday is back in college basketball, as two important power-conference games take center stage.
With that in mind, I have two selections for the biggest matchup of the night, but I'll also add a mid-major, dumpster-diving spot I like.
Read for college basketball picks, including a big late-night edge in the Big 12 on Monday, February 23.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
| 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mississippi Valley State vs. Grambling
The mighty Delta Devils conquered their darkest demons over the weekend when they notched their first Division I win of the season over Texas Southern.
This stunner sets up a unique post win hangover for the jubilated Mississippi Valley State side. In fact, since George Ivory took over the program in 2022, Mississippi Valley State is 3-7 against the spread coming off a win.
To compound the spot edge for Grambling, which returns home after a tough three-game road trip, Mississippi Valley State will be playing its fifth game in nine days, a rare scheduling quirk in the SWAC.
Grambling also played on Saturday, but it was off Thursday.
Patrick Crarey hasn’t been the cover machine he was in his first season at Florida A&M last season, when he pounded the Delta Devils by 30, but I expect a repeat blowout in this strong situation.
Pick: Grambling State -16.5 (Play to -18)
Houston vs. Kansas
Let’s recite the obvious here to start: Bill Self and Kansas are a flawless 39-0 at home on Big Monday since 2011. Isolating the subset of games lined (removing extra board games pre-2018), the Jayhawks are 23-12-1 against the spread during that span.
Self is also 4-1 against the spread as a home underdog dating back that far and an insane 63-39-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Despite all these spot boxes being checked, the market hasn't applied the usual spot premium in this position.
Perhaps its healthy skepticism as to Darryn Peterson’s impact on this team psychologically, or simply respect for Houston, but the market price is right on with KenPom’s projection.
The ultimate gut check part of this handicap is Kansas’ loss to Cincinnati over the weekend. If you believe that was a one-off performance against a desperate and white hot Bearcat team, then this should be a +EV wager.
However, there are concerns about how Peterson may respond on such a short turnaround — although, the Jayhawks were just fine without Peterson when they took down Arizona at home in this same Big Monday spot earlier this season.
Pick: Kansas +1.5 (Play to PK)
Houston vs. Kansas
The Peterson effect is seismic from a total perspective, especially against a vaunted Houston defense. However, his mysterious leg problems also inhibit his lateral agility, and he’s at high risk of being attacked defensively by Houston’s dynamic backcourt.
Per hoop-explorer, Kansas is nearly three points per 100 possessions better on defense when Peterson sits.
On offense, the numbers look comparable, but that’s because Peterson’s on-floor minutes are correlated with much stiffer competition, as has been widely reported with his odd substitution patterns.
Against Houston’s vaunted defense, it’s virtually impossible to get easy buckets at the rim, but Peterson’s shotmaking skews heavily to the mid-range. Without Peterson, Kansas’ mid-range field goal percentage is a porous 37%, but Peterson’s presence lifts that clip to a respectable 44%.
Finally, Houston is a menagerie of mid-range assassins themselves, which should be a blessing against Kansas' enormous frontline.
Layups and other close range looks are impossible to finish efficiently with Flory Bidunga roaming the paint, but the Jayhawks’ often shaky perimeter coverage should open up real estate for the Coogs to attack the paint and find openings in the mid-range.
Pick: Over 138.5 (Play to 140)
