The Louisville Cardinals take on the UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 163 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. UNC predictions and college basketball picks for February 23, 2026.
Louisville vs UNC Prediction
My Pick: Louisville -2.5
My Louisville vs UNC best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs. UNC Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 163 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 163 -110o / -110u | +125 |
- Louisville vs UNC spread: Louisville -2.5
- Louisville vs UNC over/under: 163 points
- Louisville vs UNC moneyline: Louisville -150, UNC +125
Louisville vs UNC College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville Basketball
Louisville is coming off its 20th win of the season in an 87-70 victory against Georgia Tech and now sits at 20-7 overall and 9-5 in the ACC.
Mikel Brown Jr. has been shooting the lights out in the last four games, averaging 30.5 points per night on 58/58/100 shooting splits.
The one aspect he'll need to clean up for Louisville to beat UNC is his turnovers. Over the same four-game span, he didn't have a single outing with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio.
Going up against UNC, Louisville will need its frontcourt to step up, and that starts with Sananda Fru and Khani Rooths. Fru averages 9.9 points per game, but it's not his scoring that needs to be a factor; it'll be his defensive motor while he forces Henri Veesaar to work for every post up.
This season, opponents are shooting 16-of-29 (55.2%) on post-ups against Fru, via Synergy.
For Rooths, he needs to be aggressive around the rim and on the glass. He's averaging 1.8 points and 2.5 rebounds in the last four games after averaging 12.3 points and 8.6 rebounds in the previous three.
With Caleb Wilson being out for UNC, I expect both Fru and Rooths to have an impact in this game.
UNC Basketball
UNC comes into this game at 21-6 overall and 9-5 in the ACC after its 77-64 win against Syracuse.
Veesaar came back from injury after missing two games, and he had 19 points, three rebounds and three blocks in 26 minutes against the Orange. Hubert Davis said after the game that he played Veesaar more than he wanted to.
That's something to monitor going into this matchup. Before Veesaar's injury, he played 26 minutes or more in his last 20 games. With UNC about to play its second game in three days, will Davis be cautious with Veesaar's minutes?
Whether or not Veesaar plays significant minutes or not, Seth Trimble needs to be able to step up as a consistent scoring option. UNC is 2-2 in its last four games, and in the two wins, Trimble scored in double figures. In the two losses, Trimble averaged four points per game.
Derek Dixon has shown off his passing ability as UNC's point guard, but he'll be relied on to score the ball against a fast-tempo Louisville team. This season, Dixon is shooting 10-of-34 (29.4%) as the ball handler off the pick-and-roll while shooting 7-of-21 (33.3%) in transition.
Louisville vs. UNC Betting Analysis
Without Wilson, this is a tough matchup for UNC.
The Tar Heels have the worst 3-point defense in the ACC and are facing a Louisville team that shoots 53% from deep.
Since its loss to Duke, Louisville is 6-1 and ranks 13th in the country, according to Bart Torvik. The Cardinals have a big advantage in the backcourt, and with this game being the second one in three days for UNC, I'm unsure if Davis will want to push Veesaar to 30+ minutes.
My Pick: Louisville -2.5
