The Jacksonville Dolphins take on the Bellarmine Knights in Jacksonville, FL, in the first round of the ASUN Tournament. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Bellarmine is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 148 points.
Here’s my Jacksonville vs. Bellarmine predictions and college basketball picks for March 4, 2026.
Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Prediction
My Pick: Over 147.5
My Jacksonville vs Bellarmine best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Jacksonville vs. Bellarmine Odds
| Jacksonville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | -105 |
| Bellarmine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | -115 |
- Jacksonville vs Bellarmine spread: Bellarmine -1
- Jacksonville vs Bellarmine over/under: 148 points
- Jacksonville vs Bellarmine moneyline: Jacksonville -105, Bellarmine -115
Jacksonville vs Bellarmine College Basketball Betting Preview
Jacksonville Basketball
Jacksonville comes into the ASUN Tournament as winners of back-to-back games against Stetson and North Florida.
Closing out the season on a hot streak was important for the Dolphins — who had lost five of six — but the offense has been playing better, as Jacksonville has scored 85 or more points during its mini two-game win streak.
Defense has been the calling card all season for the Dolphins, as they play at a very slow pace. However, Jacksonville can find itself in shootouts routinely in this high-scoring league.
The offense is led by Hayden Wood (11.5 PPG), who's the only Dolphins player averaging in double figures in scoring. Jaylen Jones, Donovan Rivers and Chris Lockett (who comes off the bench) average nine points per game.
This isn't a strong shooting team, as it has only one player who's made 50 or more 3-point shots this season. However, the Dolphins do crash the offensive glass well and could see second chance opportunities or trips to the stripe in this one.
The Dolphins' defense has been one of the better units in the ASUN this season, and it does a great job of preventing open looks from deep. Jacksonville has seen the least number of 3-point attempts against it this season and has done well to force low-percentage shots deep into the possession clock.
The Dolphins don't turn over their opponents and can find themselves out of position at times, which has resulted in Jacksonville sending its opponents to the line a ton.
Bellarmine Basketball
Bellarmine has been very streaky during the ASUN season. The Knights lost five of six games to open league play, followed by winning five of the next six games before suffering a five-game losing streak in February.
Six of the Knights' 11 conference losses were single-digit defeats, and Bellarmine just put up 11 points at home in the season finale against Austin Peay, which is the favorite to win this tournament.
Bellarmine has victories over Austin Peay, Central Arkansas and Queens — who are the three favorites to win the ASUN — but I'm here to tell you, if the shooting is on, these guys are incredibly dangerous.
The offense relies heavily on Jack Karasinski, who scores 21.3 points and five rebounds per contest. Karasinski leads the team in 3-point shots made, free throws made and attempted and offensive rebounds secured.
Brian Waddell scores 15 points per game, while Kenyon Goodin scores 12.
The offense has the highest field goal percentage of any unit in the conference, and they can blaze the nets off from deep. The Knights have been more aggressive at getting to the foul line, and they should have opportunities in this one if they deploy an aggressive approach.
Bellarmine's defense has been the issue, as this is the least efficient unit in the entire country, per KenPom rankings. Despite playing at a slower pace offensively and often seeing possession counts in the low 60s, this defense surrenders 82 points per game, while struggling to defend the arc.
The Knights are often outscoring teams in order to win, and at this point in the season, there's not much we can expect out of this bunch defensively.
Jacksonville vs. Bellarmine Betting Analysis
This line opened with Bellarmine listed as a short one-point favorite with a total pegged at 144.5. I'm going to play the over here.
The Dolphins are going to score points in this matchup. Jacksonville has been much more aggressive on the offensive end and ended the season by shredding both Stetson and North Florida, which has a comparable level of defense to what Bellarmine is going to roll out there.
Wood has scored 22 or more points in three of his last four games and has been much more aggressive in getting to the foul line. Rivers has accumulated paint touches, resulting in close looks or trips to the foul line.
Bellarmine has allowed 73 or more points in its last six games, as the defense isn't effective at accruing stops on this end of the floor. The Knights foul at a high rate and don't come equipped with a strong rim-protection defense, which could create issues in this matchup.
No one in the conference has a higher defensive free-throw rate surrendered than Jacksonville, and I expect Bellarmine to have looks both at the rim and at the line.
Karasinski completely took over the Austin Peay game while scoring 38 points and burying five 3-point shots. He's been aggressive getting to the stripe and has scored 23 points or more in five straight games.
This is going to be a close game. Aside from a possibility of overtime, there will be opportunities for late-game fouling, which will create additional possessions and scoring opportunities late in the second half.
One of these teams will play with desperation until the buzzer goes off, and I think we'll get enough made shots on both sides to get this one over the posted total.
My Pick: Over 147.5
