NCAAB Betting Guide for Kansas vs Texas

NCAAB Betting Guide for Kansas vs Texas article feature image
Credit:

David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Texas’ Timmy Allen (left) and Sir’Jabari Rice (right).

Kansas vs Texas Odds

Saturday, March 4
4 p.m. ET
ESPN
Kansas Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+3
-110
148.5
-110o / -110u
+135
Texas Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-3
-110
148.5
-110o / -110u
-160
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

As has been the case for the entire Big 12 season, we have a terrific matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns on Saturday.

This could be a huge game in terms of seeding for the Longhorns, as they could potentially grab sole possession of the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. This will hinge on the results of the other conference matchups, but I expect a great effort regardless.

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but Bill Self's Jayhawks will enter the Big 12 Tournament as regular-season champions once again. It'll be interesting to see how fired up Kansas is for a matchup that won't change its seeding.

Before we jump to any conclusions about which team will come out most motivated, let's break both of these teams down and uncover some betting value.


Kansas Jayhawks

The Jayhawks have been playing their best basketball of the season in the last several weeks, entering this matchup on a seven-game winning streak.

Star forward Jalen Wilson continues to be the true anchor of this inexperienced Jayhawks team, leading the team in scoring with 19.6 points per game.

The underlying metrics support the narrative of the Jayhawks going back-to-back, as they rank inside the top 20 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They also rank in the middle of the pack in free-throw percentage, which is a good sign that they're not completely inept in that area.

For this matchup, I think we have to consider a few factors — one of which is motivation. How pumped up is Self's team going to be heading into Austin, where they have absolutely nothing to play for? This is something we'll see right from the jump, so keep that in mind while you watch the opening minutes.

Secondly, despite how incredible the Jayhawks have played of late, they may have some regression coming their way, according to ShotQuality. They currently sit with a -23.04 record luck, which is one of the lowest throughout the entire country.

It's safe to say they may face this regression sooner rather than later, which could come to fruition during this matchup.

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Texas Longhorns

This is a big game for the Longhorns, who have the opportunity to seize control of the 2-seed in the Big 12 Tournament. Coming off of back-to-back losses, I'm curious to see how Rodney Terry's team responds in this tough matchup.

I still like the structure of this Texas team, and its metrics speak for themselves. Texas ranks inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, which is the recipe for making a deep run in March.

It also loves getting out in transition by forcing turnovers, which is another category in which it ranks inside the top 20. Guard Marcus Carr and forward Sir'Jabari Rice continue to be huge difference-makers on offense, and their performances directly correlate with the Longhorns' success.

Even with its recent struggles, I think Texas matches up well with this Kansas team. The Horns suffered an 88-80 loss to KU in Lawrence earlier last month, but they shot 3-of-16 from beyond the arc. Even with a slight improvement in that area, I think they will be able to find offensive success this time around.

I do have concerns about matching up with Kansas' size, but I think the talent gap is pretty even overall.


Kansas vs Texas Betting Pick

Simply put, if both of these teams were playing on a neutral court with zero motivation factors, I would take the Jayhawks. But this handicap is all based on the complete opposite. Texas is at home, and Kansas doesn't have anything to play for.

How in the world are the Jayhawks going to be motivated for this game?

I wouldn't panic about the Longhorns' recent performances, as the Big 12 has been a complete gauntlet all season. I also think the talent gap is relatively small, so even if this game was being played in different circumstances, I could make a case for either team.

Give me the Longhorns all day in a great spot, and let's see if they can climb to No. 2 in the Big 12 standings by day's end.

Hook 'Em.

Pick: Texas -1 (Play to -2)


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