The March Madness field of 68 has finally been set, with First Four and First Round games beginning the week of March 16. The race is on to see who will make the Final Four in Indianapolis in a few weeks time.
This year's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament features four incredibly strong No. 1 seeds in Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and reigning champion Florida. But how many will make the Final Four? According to Kalshi's odds, there is an overwhelming chance that at least one will.
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March Madness No. 1 Seeds to Make Final Four Odds
March Madness in recent years has been known for its big upsets, most notably when #16 UMBC beat the brakes off of #1 Virginia back in 2018. However, that remains the only time in tournament history where a #16 seed has knocked out a #1 seed, which paints the picture of just how difficult it is to get the best teams in college basketball out of the tournament.
In last year's tournament, all four #1 seeds made the Final Four. And since the 2011 tournament, there has only been one year where all four #1 seeds failed to make it; back in 2023, when eventual champion #4 UConn was the highest-seeded team remaining.
This March Madness, it's hard to envision a reality where less than two of these top-seeded teams reach the Final Four. Michigan's loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Championship was their first loss since February 21–when they lost to Duke, a fellow #1 seed that they wouldn't see before the Final Four anyways.
Duke's last loss came in a tough road rivalry game in Chapel Hill, where the Blue Devils and Tar Heels traded blows until the final whistle. Their only other loss came against #18 Texas Tech early in the season, who don't appear in Duke's region of the bracket. Arizona carried an undefeated season into February 10, lost back-to-back games against #9 Kansas and #16 Texas Tech, and won out the rest of the way.
Perhaps the most malleable of the #1 seeds are the defending champs. Florida was done away with in the SEC semifinal by a lower-seeded Vanderbilt team, and has the most losses out of any of these #1-seeded teams. Sure, some of them came against tough competitors like Arizona, Duke, and UConn, but there were other tough defeats in conference play at the hands of an unranked Mizzou squad, and a faltering Auburn team.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
