NCAAB Odds, Pick for Marquette vs St. John’s

Before the season started, the Big East title looked like a three horse race between the Marquette Golden Eagles, Connecticut Huskies and Creighton Bluejays.

Just about a third of the way into the conference season and UConn has emerged as the clear favorite. The Huskies have built a two-game lead over Marquette and Creighton, while rising to the top spot in the AP Poll.

Marquette still has plenty of time to chase down the Huskies — plus both ends of their home-and-home still to come — but the rest of the schedule is no cake walk. Case in point: a Saturday visit to Madison Square Garden to battle the St. John's Red Storm.

Rick Pitino has his program off to a strong start, angling for a ticket to March's Big Dance.

Marquette's losses this season have felt like a game of Jenga. Dropping the Maui Invitational title game to highly ranked Purdue? No problem.

Losing a true road game against in-state rival (and now Big Ten leader) Wisconsin? Totally excusable.

The Big East offers plenty of tough games, especially on the road. Seton Hall and Providence aren't at the top of the conference, though losing in their buildings is certainly understandable.

Getting handily defeated by a middle-of-the-road Butler team on the comfort of your home court? Now the Jenga tower comes tumbling down. Sure, the Golden Eagles shot 5-of-31 from outside the arc in that game, but at some point, the ceiling of this once Final Four-aspiring team comes into question.

In Big East play, where the Golden Eagles are just 3-3, Marquette ranks eighth in Offensive Efficiency (out of 11 teams). Some of that is, again, just due to cold shooting. Marquette has hit just 27.8% of its 3s in conference play (second worst in the Big East) after making 34% in non-conference.

A touch of that is luck due to regress. A touch more is shot selection. Every member of the Marquette rotation is shooting at or near his career percentage from deep, suggesting there's not much room for a bounce back.

Instead, the Golden Eagles would do well to second-guess some of their transition 3-point attempts. Marquette is averaging the 10th-shortest possessions in the country, though I'm not sure why.

This is a talented team with an elite pick-and-roll creator in Tyler Kolek. The Golden Eagles rank in the top 20 nationally in 2-point percentage. Call me old fashioned, but rather than hoisting the first open look, Marquette should let its playmakers create some higher percentage chances.

Two weeks ago, St. John's was the talk of college basketball. Rick Pitino had the Red Storm at 4-1 in the Big East, tied atop the conference standings. The Red Storm's lone conference loss came in the Big East's toughest spot, at UConn, where the Johnnies battled and lost by just four points.

Since then, the Red Storm have hit an icy patch. Back-to-back losses at Creighton and Seton Hall are certainly understandable, yet they put the breaks on the St. John's hype train.

Adding insult to infection, both head coach Rick Pitino and guard Jordan Dingle missed the Seton Hall game due to positive COVID-19 tests. That was just four days ago, so it's likely we don't see Dingle and do see assistant coach Steve Masiello at the helm.

The small sample size on that version of St. John's is bad news, with Seton Hall running the Johnnies out of the gym Tuesday night. The Pirates built a lead as high as 28 points in the second half. It was a real reality check for a team that had been playing so well in the preceding weeks.

Since getting UMass transfer RJ Luis Jr. back from injury, St. John's looked like a real postseason threat and a team worthy of a spot just behind the Big East's favorites.

If you're monitoring this game, keep a very keen eye on the Red Storm's availability. Pitino and Dingle aren't expected to return and you'd hope that the program isolated the issue, but it's worth tracking in the lead up.

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If not for the COVID situation, there might be a case to bet St. John's here. It's a surging team in a get-right spot playing on its home floor. That certainly sounds like a team worth a bet.

Without Pitino and Dingle, however, it's much harder to make that case. This isn't just a different voice in the game day huddle; St. John's will have been without one of the nation's best coaches throughout the game-planning process.

Adding that to Marquette's possible 3-point regression, and I lean towards taking the Golden Eagles on the road.

Pick: Marquette -3 or Better