Texas vs Miami Odds & Prediction | How to Bet Sunday’s Elite 8 Matchup

Texas vs Miami Odds & Prediction | How to Bet Sunday’s Elite 8 Matchup article feature image

Photo by Andrew Hancock/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Texas Longhorns Timmy Allen (left) and Marcus Carr (right).

Texas vs Miami Odds

Sunday, March 26
5:05 p.m. ET
Texas Odds
-110o / -110u
Miami Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

After downing No. 1 seed Houston in convincing fashion, Miami goes for its first-ever Final Four in program history against Texas.

If Drake didn't have a catastrophic collapse in the first round, Miami would already be home. Instead, the Canes pulled off back-to-back outstanding offensive performances against Indiana and one of the best defenses in the country, Houston.

The Hurricanes were in the Elite 8 last season, losing to the eventual champions, Kansas. Will we see a repeat of last season, or will Miami get over the hump to the Final Four?

The Longhorns have gone through a lot this season — from losing their head coach in the middle of the season to now being on cusp of making the Final Four for the first time since 2003.

They are the only 1- or 2-seed left in the tournament and are now one of the betting favorites to cut down the nets. Stopping a red-hot Miami team is going to be a massive challenge, though.

Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns have shown their versatility offensively through these first three games.

Against Colgate, Sir'Jabari Rice caught fire to help lead Texas to a 13-for-23 night from long range.

Then against Penn State, Texas went 1-of-13 from 3-point range but scored 32 of its 71 points against Penn State in the midrange.

Then against Xavier on Friday night, the Longhorns got hot from 3-point range again, going 7-of-12 while also shooting 51% from inside the arc and getting to the rim with relative ease.

Sir'Jabari Rice with his 4th three already 🥵#MarchMadness@TexasMBBpic.twitter.com/NDdluGB9Jt

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 17, 2023

Texas isn't usually a high-volume 3-point shooting team. The Longhorns are 275th in 3-point rate and are only hitting at a 34.5% clip on the season, which is around the NCAA average.

Normally, Texas' shot distribution is heavily oriented towards shots at the rim and in the mid-range. That is where Texas has attempted 60% of its shots.

The Longhorns have been shooting well from the midrange, boasting a 43% shooting percentage from that area. Texas also ranks in the top 40 in Points Per Possession (PPP) on shot attempts at the rim.

Texas' defense does three things really well.

  1. The Longhorns turn opponents over at a top-20 rate.
  2. They defend the rim at an incredibly high level, allowing 1.11 PPP, which is 21st in the country.
  3. They defend in transition better than anyone left in this tournament, ranking third in PPP allowed.

All three things will be crucial to stopping Miami's offense.

The Longhorns have also done a fantastic job defending the 3-point line this tournament, as opponents have combined to go just 18-of-60 from beyond the arc.

Those three opponents (Colgate, Penn State and Xavier) came into the tournament top-10 in 3-point field goal percentage. That's how impressive Texas has been defending the perimeter.

The problem: that isn't going to matter in this game because Miami hardly turns the ball over and only 25% of its shots are at the rim, which is the second-lowest frequency.

Miami Hurricanes

Offense is the reason Miami is in the Elite 8. The Hurricanes are sixth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, 23rd in effective field goal percentage and have two incredible scoring guards in Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack.

Those two have combined for 85 points in their last two games.

What Miami has done against two really good defenses is truly remarkable.

Against Drake, Miami was lost offensively. The Canes scored just four points at the rim against the Bulldogs and relied on some free-throw luck to come back and win that game.

Then against Indiana, they were able to get to the rim with ease and score 40 points there.

Against Houston, the Canes got hot from behind the arc and hit 11 3-pointers, which just shows you the versatility of the Hurricanes' offense.

Norchad Omier being healthy and effective during this tournament has been massive for Miami. Omier is top-35 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.

Overall, this season, Miami was an average defensive rebounding unit, so having him in the lineup has been huge to keeping some of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country off the boards.

It's not just his rebounding, though. He's an incredibly efficient scorer in the post and at the rim, shooting over 60% from inside the arc this season.

Image via ShotQuality

Overall for the season, Miami has a ton of issues on the defensive end of the court, as its 104th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Canes have done a good job defending inside the arc in this tournament, but to beat Texas, you have to be able to defend mid-range jumpers and at the rim.

Miami is a top-35 team in PPP allowed at the rim, but it's 360th in PPP allowed from the mid-range, per ShotQuality.

It's also been a while since Miami has had to face a team that wants to play in transition the way Texas does.

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Texas vs Miami Betting Pick

I think the road ends here for Miami.

The Hurricanes own an incredible offense that can beat you in a number of different ways, but Texas being elite at defending at the rim, in transition and on the perimeter during the tournament is going to make life incredibly difficult for Miami.

So, if Miami's offense isn't able to get going and it has to rely on its below average defense to stop Texas — which has been hot from behind the arc and in the mid-range in this tournament — it's going to be tough to see how the Hurricanes get to the Final Four.

So, I like the value on the Longhorns at -4 (bet365), and I would play it up to -5.

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Nick Sterling
Jul 14, 2024 UTC