Morehead State vs Little Rock Pick, Prediction for OVC Title Game

The Little Rock Trojans snagged a win in its lone regular-season meeting against Morehead State, 69-68 two weeks ago. The Eagles played without elite shooting guard Jordan Lathon, which limited Morehead State’s regularly elite shooting attack.

What should you expect from this Ohio Valley Tournament final, and who will clinch the first NCAA tournament berth of 2024?

Let’s get into the backstories first.

Morehead State last played in the NCAA tournament three seasons ago, as Johni Broome’s success vaulted the Eagles to an OVC title. The Eagles fell short in the Round of 64 against Miles McBride and West Virginia and will look to capture their first NCAA tourney win since Kenneth Faried led the charge in 2011

Little Rock last played in the Big Dance in 2016, when Chris Beard led the Trojans to an NCAA tournament victory.

Now, what should you expect from this title game?

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Both teams make their money on the offensive end but do so in a much different fashion.

Little Rock pushes the tempo and wants to play downhill. The Trojans rank 94th in Adjusted Tempo and shoot 53.4% from 2-point territory. A lot of the inside scoring success comes from KK Robinson, Jamir Chaplin and Makhel Mitchell.

The Trojans don’t shoot a ton of 3s, attempting triples on just 31% of their field goals. That’s because it’s not a strength of Little Rock’s attack — guards Bradley Douglas and Jordan Jefferson are the only players shooting 35% or better.

Robinson fills up the stat sheet, scoring 16 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. He’ll look to attack Morehead State’s backcourt defense. Robinson exploded for 21 points in the Trojans' win over Morehead State.

Mitchell is the most underrated piece in Darrell Walker’s offensive scheme. He’s a great passer and operates the offense often in half-court situations. The former Razorback big-man tallied five-plus dimes in three consecutive games.

However, Mitchell suffered an arm injury midway through the second half in the OVC semifinals — as Little Rock led by 20 — and never returned. He dealt with arm injuries earlier this year, so we’ll see if Mitchell suits up. If he’s out, look for the less-versatile Jaylen Crocker-Johnston to play a full allotment of minutes.

The biggest roadblock for Little Rock is its issues on the glass. The Trojans rank outside the top 225 in defensive rebounding percentage. This is in contrast to Morehead State, which has collected top-80 rankings on both ends, giving it a huge advantage.

You don’t want to give Morehead State extra scoring chances. In the semifinals, Western Illinois grabbed 19 offensive rebounds and took advantage of Little Rock's rebounding issues, so Morehead can do the same.

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I mentioned the stark difference in how Morehead State and Little Rock play. The main difference is Morehead State’s perimeter shooting, as it attempts triples on 44% of its field goal attempts. Lathon (37%) and Kalil Thomas (42%) are really the only two go-to shooting options for Preston Spradlin.

In yesterday's win over UT Martin, Morehead State went 15-of-36 from 3 and Thomas hit seven triples.

Although Morehead State isn’t a great shooting squad, the inside dominance from OVC POY Riley Minix opens up the offense. Minix hails from the NAIA level, and morphed into a bonafide stud at the D-I level.

Minix is posting 20 points and nine rebounds per game while shooting 54% from the floor. Very few Ohio Valley foes contain Minix, as he’s scored 20+ points in nine of the past 10 games. He also scored 29 in the lone meeting against Little Rock.

The turnover battle decided the previous meeting between these two. Morehead point guard Drew Thelwell turned it over seven times (with eight assists), but he’ll need to take better care of the ball against Little Rock’s defensive pressure (18% defensive turnover rate).

Morehead State is one of the most profitable squads in college hoops, covering the spread in 18 of 29 games. It wouldn't shock me if Morehead State started hitting perimeter jumpers and made the game uneven early.

Pick: Morehead State -2.5 (Play to -4.5)