NC State vs. Clemson Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet This First-Round ACC Matchup
Photo by Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jericole Hellems (NC State)
NC State vs. Clemson Odds
|NC State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The opening round of the ACC Tournament begins Tuesday, and one line specifically jumps off of the page.
North Carolina State plays Clemson in the second game of the day. The two have only played each other once this season — the Tigers beat the Wolfpack on the road by five points.
Neither team is particularly strong on the defensive end, but NC State can hit some 3-pointers on occasion to keep this matchup close. Expect this to be the case in this postseason game, especially since the Wolfpack have nothing to lose.
North Carolina State’s liability lies on the defensive end. The Wolfpack particularly struggle with guarding 3-pointers.
Per ShotQuality, they rank 355th in the NCAA on Catch & Shoot 3s, but on offense, they actually rank 99th in this category, which is not too shabby for being the last-place team in the ACC. They shoot 34.6% as a unit.
Terquavion Smith and Jericole Hellems are the usual suspects. Each have at least 179 3-point attempts and shoot over 37% from downtown.
Clemson ranks 152nd in Open 3 Rate, so these players will get the opportunities needed to keep the Wolfpack within striking distance. After all, over 35% of points on Clemson have come from beyond the arc this season.
In addition, the Wolfpack are one of the NCAA’s best at maintaining control over the ball. Yes, they have their shortcomings, but they only turn it over 14.7% of the time offensively (this ranks 13th).
Clemson only turns opponents over at a 17.1% clip, so do not expect NC State to cough up the ball all too often.
On the opposite end, NC State can turn over opponents on occasion — its defensive turnover rate is 18.5%.
Clemson usually does not get sloppy, but expect a few more turnovers than usual from the Tigers.
Clemson has similar issues defensively. It allows opponents to shoot nearly 50% from inside the arc and around 33.5% from outside.
NC State will likely have to shoot well from 3 to cover this line, but knowing Clemson leaves holes open defensively will allow the Wolfpack to have open treys.
The reason is that NC State ranks 68th in spacing, per ShotQuality. Clemson ranks 198th in this metric, so the Wolfpack will have an edge. If they can at least move the ball properly — while not turning it over — they can take advantage of these gaps created by doing so.
Clemson also struggles on the offensive glass. It only rebounds around 26% of the time. This is also one of NC State’s worst attributes. Removing the second chances from the game for the Tigers plays into the hands of the Wolfpack, though.
The Tigers are a better 3-point shooting team, but much of this production comes from Al-Amir Dawes, Alex Hemenway and Nick Honor. Honor only shoots 32.4%, so each team having two guys who are efficient behind the arc makes this basically a wash.
The Tigers have been cold in some of their losses. They shot below 30% from deep the last time these two met, but shots opened up internally. If NC State can replicate that game — and guard the interior a bit better — it should be in line for the cover.
NC State vs. Clemson Betting Pick
The Wolfpack can shoot the 3, and they are relatively efficient offensively. Since they can space the floor well and do not turn over the ball, they only have to turn up the intensity on defense.
Doing so will allow them to make this a tighter game than the market dictates. Clemson may have won four in a row, but it is playing above its level right now.