The NCAA Tournament is just around the corner. While casual fans and diehards alike love to watch the maximum amount of madness unfold in March, the teams that have reached the pinnacle of the sport by claiming No. 1 seeds have been great throughout the season.
For anyone interested in making predictions on 1-seeds in the Elite Eight, Kalshi allows users to place real money on the outcome in most states. Additionally, we have a Kalshi promo code to help get you started.
No. 1 Seeds in the Elite Eight Odds, Predictions
Last season, all four No. 1 seeds not only cruised to the Elite Eight, but they were all Final Four participants. Somehow, the No. 1 seeds this year are even better than last year's No. 1 seeds on average.
While comparing KenPom ratings from one season to the next is hard to do because the calculation is evaluating teams against the average team within each particular season, the No. 1 seeds this year are some of the best we've seen. Duke (+38.90), Arizona (+37.66), and Michigan (+37.59) have the same separation from the rest of the country as the four No. 1 seeds did last year from everyone else.
Interestingly, though, Florida (+33.79) is basically dead even in KenPom ratings with Houston (+33.43). All of this is important because Houston is the No. 2 seed in Florida's region, and could prevent the Gators from repeating. But this market would have already been resolved by the time that matchup rolls around in the Elite Eight.
Considering how good the top three No. 1 seeds are this year, betting on Florida to at least make it to a national championship game rematch with Houston isn't the worst idea in the world, especially with such low odds. However, in a tournament where things can go wrong quickly, the likelihood that the No. 1 seeds are as dominant as they were last year is low, even if the numbers say they're better.
Even if Florida can get there, Duke could lose to a very talented Kansas squad in the Sweet Sixteen. The same goes for Florida itself, with two underseeded teams – Nebraska and Vanderbilt – looming in its region. Michigan has also looked vulnerable after the season-ending injury to L.J. Cason. Arizona has a potential matchup nightmare with Wisconsin lurking in the Sweet Sixteen, simply because the Badgers shoot a ton of threes and the Wildcats don't.
With all that context, it feels like the odds are set at very fair numbers. All four No. 1 seeds making it to the Elite Eight is a possibility, though not likely. However, it feels like this is the type of year where the No. 1 seeds are so good that more than one of them slipping up during the first weekend or the Sweet Sixteen feels extremely unlikely. Three No. 1 seeds at around a two-thirds chance is a solid choice, but the other outcomes feel too one-sided to have good value.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Also, Kalshi’s refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once they meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
