After the NCAA Tournament served up four straight double-digit blowouts stretching back to the Sweet 16 on Friday night, the basketball gods rewarded fans who resisted the urge to turn off the Duke-UConn game when the Blue Devils raced out to a 19-point lead.
Down 11, with under eight to play, the Huskies were 1-for-18 from 3-point range. But then the triples began to fall. The Huskies closed the game 4-for-5 from long range, including Alex Karaban’s pivotal trey in the final minute. This, of course, set the stage for the wild ending, complete with a steal and a logo-3 from freshman Braylon Mullins to win the game in the closing seconds.
If UConn is rightfully drained emotionally, there are lots of ways to capitalize on an Illinois title game appearance. Let’s turn to the NCAA Tournament futures market to grab an exact outcome ticket.
Arizona Over Illinois in National Title Game (+420)
Let’s take a quick money management detour before we break down the matchup between the Wildcats and Fighting Illini.
This offer, at just north of four-to-one, is even better than a straightforward rollover strategy. If you were to parlay Illinois and Arizona moneylines in the Final Four, the payout would fall in the +255 to +260 neighborhood.
But projections call for Arizona to open as a four- to five-point favorite over Illinois in a hypothetical title-game matchup, placing the moneyline in the -175 to -200 range.
If you were to roll the moneyline parlay winnings into a moneyline play on Arizona in the national title game, you’d actually walk away with less compared to what you would've made with a simple Arizona-over-Illinois futures ticket.
Both teams cruised to the Final Four on the back of four-straight double-digit wins. Illinois had a sleepy start against Iowa, falling behind 12-2 before outscoring its Big Ten neighbors 69-47 the rest of the way.
Purdue hit Arizona with a series of haymakers in their Elite Eight matchup, building up a seven-point halftime lead before the Wildcats vaporized them in the second half. The Wildcats had nearly three times as many second-chance points (17) as they did turnovers (6).
This fueled a 48-point second half and a comfortable 15-point come-from-behind win against Matt Painter's unit.
In the semifinals, Illinois has the size to corral UConn’s Tarris Reed Jr. The Fighting Illini are 10th in 2-point shot proximity and never send teams to the line. Given UConn’s underwhelming shooting from long range, scoring in close and getting to the line is a necessity.
In their first meeting, Illinois held Reed to two points and five rebounds while sending him to the bench with foul trouble. The Illini suffered their worst shooting night of the season and couldn’t capitalize on their defense performance.
The difference in this rematch is that Illinois has morphed into the best offense in the sport, adept at hunting great looks and spreading the floor with four or five elite shooters at a time.
As for Arizona’s part of this bargain, the Wildcats have played and beaten elite competition for five straight weeks. The Wildcats have racked up seven wins over ranked opponents since late February, and silenced the doubters by shooting nearly 40% from long range during this run.
They don’t need to be a high-volume 3-point shooting team, but if they choose to punish teams for packing it in defensively, they’re more than capable. Toss in their size — which allows them to defend the rim and rebound at an elite level — and they have the recipe to beat Michigan.
If Purdue can get the best of this Michigan team — as it did in the Big Ten Tournament — Arizona can win with the same playbook.
As for the hypothetical title game, I trust in Tommy Lloyd’s team to rise to the occasion on the defensive end. The best Big 12 comparison for Illinois was a fully healthy BYU, and Arizona swept the Cougars.
Reining in AJ Dybantsa and Richie Saunders was a good indicator of what they’re capable of when they face an elite offense.
It’s why U-of-A will open as nearly a two-possession favorite against Illinois.
