Everyone's eyes turn to March Madness this time of year. The biggest disappointment each year comes when players late in the season begin to suffer injuries that will cost them a chance at their NCAA Tournament dreams.
For bettors and bracket-crunchers, an injury can be a game-changer.
These eight players are either not expected to return this season or have an injury worth monitoring before make any picks.
JT Toppin (Texas Tech)
No injury rocked a team with Final Four hopes like JT Toppin’s ACL tear. After a 19-6 start — punctuated by a win at Arizona — Tech lost Toppin during a defeat to Arizona State and lost four of its last seven games, including a current three-game skid.
And yet, there might be room for hope.
Bart Torvik’s T-Rank metric had Texas Tech as the 15th-best team prior to Toppin’s injury. Filtering the data for games played after Toppin’s injury, T-Rank has Tech ranked…15th.
The Red Raiders lost games down the stretch, but the Big 12 slate was brutal. Texas Tech still defends at a super high level and Christian Anderson is very able to step up into a starring role.
The ceiling of Tech playing in April may be gone, yet the Red Raiders won’t go out without a fight.
Richie Saunders (BYU)
Not far behind Tech’s loss of Toppin, BYU losing senior star Richie Saunders was monumental at the top of the Big 12. The high profile of future top-five pick AJ Dybantsa attracts all the attention in Provo, but Saunders was the engine that raised the floor for the Cougars and gave Dybantsa space to operate.
Saunders could get hot in a hurry, averaging 18 points per game and popping for six made triples on four different occasions. He dragged BYU through a near-comeback at Kansas, scoring 33 points.
Without his shooting and secondary playmaking skills, BYU is even more reliant on Dybantsa and in need of major production from Robert Wright III.
Both are able, yet will see tons of defensive attention without Saunders’ presence.
Caleb Wilson (UNC)
The loss of stud freshman Caleb Wilson also dramatically affected the chances of deep run from North Carolina, where the ceiling may no longer be the roof.
Wilson was a hair away from averaging a double-double — plus a block and a steal — for Hubert Davis’ club. He somehow filled the roles of both primary scorer and do-it-all glue guy.
Since his injury, counting the game where it occurred, the Heels went just 5-4. Against teams in the NCAA Tournament in that span, Carolina was 2-4.
Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson is the player expected to step up. His minutes increased by 10 per game. He can give a replacement-level performance in Wilson’s role, without bringing the same level of playmaking or athleticism.
Caleb Foster (Duke)
Wilson was somehow not the only Caleb on Tobacco Road to be lost to a season-ending injury.
Officially, Duke guard Caleb Foster was announced as being sidelined “indefinitely” and Jon Scheyer used the phrasing “for the foreseeable future."
That means we’ll be seeing a lot more of Cayden Boozer. While his brother Cameron will be collecting tons of awards this month, Cayden has been less reliable, certainly less so than Foster.
Cayden is a much worse shooter than Foster, less aggressive as a scoring option and more turnover prone. Florida State seemed to dare him to shoot in the ACC Tournament, and Boozer went 0-for-5 from deep. Clemson and Virginia had less luck, with Cayden scoring 16 points in back-to-back games.
We’ll see more from Dame Sarr as well, an excellent defender with offensive limitations.
Duke’s offense will need to adjust, likely relying even more on Cameron Boozer to score and create than he already does.
Patrick Ngongba II (Duke)
Foster’s not alone on the Duke injury report. Starting center Patrick Ngongba II has dealt with a foot issue and was seen in a walking boot on a mobility scooter at the ACC Tournament.
That sounds more precautionary, as Scheyer has given positive news about Ngongba’s return.
Additionally, Maliq Brown is an able replacement, at least for the first round or two of the Big Dance. He filled in nicely as Duke conquered the ACC Tournament title.
Matt Hodge (Villanova)
Villanova ranked 266th in bench minutes this season, per KenPom, though that's a little bit misleading when determining how deep Kevin Willard’s roster goes. Willard has really only stuck to a seven-man rotation for the majority of the season, with only those seven players averaging 10 plus minutes per game.
Of those seven, four are guards and Duke Brennan is a center. Only Hodge and Malachi Palmer play the forward spots, and they do so very differently. Hodge is 6-foot-8, a true power forward in the lineup, and he nabs 5.2 rebounds per 40 minutes. Palmer is only 6-foot-6, more of a small forward, and only grabs 3.8 rebounds per 40.
Teams are absolutely going to be able to take advantage of Villanova’s lack of size, when the Wildcats already rank outside the top 200 teams in the nation in defensive rebounding. In Villanova’s Big East Tournament loss, Georgetown rebounded half of its own misses, with Palmer not grabbing a single defensive rebound.
Ethan Roberts (Penn)
Incredibly, the Quakers were able to win Ivy Madness, as the three-seed, without their leading scorer. Ethan Roberts was sidelined with a concussion, missing the wins over Harvard and Yale.
TJ Powers, formerly of Duke and Virginia, stepped up and scored 44 points against Yale in the title game. He’ll have a much tougher task against the size of Illinois. If Roberts is ruled out, Illinois can devote even more attention to Powers.
Illinois was 8-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 15 points this season. The spread in this game will absolutely change based on Roberts’ availability, making it a news item to track early in the week. Coach Fran McCaffery said Roberts is set to be "re-evaluated," but didn't offer clarity yet.
Braden Huff (Gonzaga)
The Zags punished teams on the interior all season long, with Braden Huff and Graham Ike working high-low or taking turns scoring on the block.
It’s been Ike’s show since mid-January when Huff dislocated his kneecap and was forced to the sideline.
Whispers say Huff’s season isn't over, but that a return wouldn't occur until at least next weekend.
Gonzaga is plenty deep, playing its bench at a top-15 rate in the country, so Huff absence shouldn’t be a major miss in the Round of 64. A looming second-round matchup with BYU would be more cause for concern.
