NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks: How to Live Bet First Round Using ‘Kill Shot’ Data
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Gonzaga’s Drew Timme.
The invention of the “Kill Shot” has redefined how Collin Wilson live bets college basketball.
The pure definition of Kill Shot from Evan Miyakawa is defined as “the number of double-digit scoring runs per game — 10 points or more scored in a row without the opposing team scoring.”
Predicting a scoring streak can be highly profitable in a volatile sport such as college basketball. Of course, the Kill Shot goes both ways, as a few teams in the dance have a high probability of allowing a 10-0 run.
This article will take a look at the teams that average the most Kill Shots per game, allow the most Kill Shots per game, and identify a few games that will be live-betting extravaganzas.
Epic Kill Shot Ratio (Kill Shot greater than 70%, Kill Shot Allowed less than 20%)
Best Kill Shot Teams (Greater than 75% chance per game)
- Oral Roberts
- Florida Atlantic
Streakiest Kill Shot Teams (Greater than 50% Kill Shot, Kill Shot Allowed)
- Arizona State
- Kansas State
- Texas Southern
Illinois vs. Arkansas
Illinois: Kill Shot 69% · Kill Shot Allowed 53%
Arkansas: Kill Shot 59% · Kill Shot Allowed 35%
The Fighting Illini are one of the streakiest teams in the nation, averaging a Kill Shot executed and allowed over 50% each game. Those swings can be expected against a Razorback team that has lost four of the past five games after holding a double-digit lead.
Arkansas is led by a trio of potential NBA lottery picks but has yet to find a groove this season. While the Razorbacks average a Kill Shot per game at a 59% rate, the Hogs have clamped down on opponents looking to post a 10-0 run.
If this script follows typical Arkansas-Illinois fashion, look for the Hogs and Illini to each hold multiple possession leads that disappear.
Utah State vs. Missouri
Utah State: Kill Shot 52% · Kill Shot Allowed 39%
Missouri: Kill Shot 74% · Kill Shot Allowed 47%
The Tigers have been able to overcome double-digit deficits against some of the bottom-tier teams of the SEC. Missouri finished the season with victories over Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss thanks to the Kill Shot.
Not only is Missouri capable of going on a scoring streak, but almost half of the Tigers’ games also allow opponents to go streaking.
While Utah State is capable of putting up its own streak, the Aggies also finished 0-3 against the spread in the second half as an underdog. There should be plenty of back-and-forth live betting opportunities around the closing number.
Oral Roberts vs. Duke
Oral Roberts: Kill Shot 113% · Kill Shot Allowed 37%
Duke: Kill Shot 69% · Kill Shot Allowed 17%
Rock, meet hard place.
No team scores more Kill Shots per game than Oral Roberts, averaging 1.13. For reference, the next highest is Iona at 0.91. The Golden Eagles shoot off-the-dribble 3-point shots at the third-highest rate in the nation with an efficiency rank of seventh.
Duke’s defense is 228th in defending off-the-dribble 3-pointers, meaning there’s a high probability that Oral Roberts goes on a 10-0 run.
While the Blue Devils are certainly capable of executing their own Kill Shot, the Golden Eagles will not go down without multiple opportunities to make a live wager.
Kent State vs. Indiana
Kent State: Kill Shot 61% · Kill Shot Allowed 33%
Indiana: Kill Shot 74% · Kill Shot Allowed 41%
Followers in the Action Network App understand that when Indiana and Illinois played in the regular season, the live betting was hot for the entire 40 minutes.
Kent State should be able to deliver that same kind of game with a higher percentage chance of a 10-0 run against the Hoosiers.
The Golden Flashes love to run pick-and-roll from anywhere on the court, a thorn in the side of an Indiana team that ranks 228th in defending the pick-and-roll.
Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga
Grand Canyon: Kill Shot 48% · Kill Shot Allowed 61%
Gonzaga: Kill Shot 79% · Kill Shot Allowed 15%
The Bulldogs have been one of the hottest teams in college basketball in the final month of play. An argument could be made against West Coast competition, but the Zags played nearly every preseason top-10 team.
Gonzaga is one of the few epic Kill Shot teams, meaning it frequently goes on 10-0 scoring streaks and almost never concedes them. Along with UConn and Alabama, the Bulldogs are a team that can make a close game a blowout after a few possessions.
Grand Canyon makes a grand entrance to the Big Dance after winning four straight in the WAC Tournament. The Antelopes allowed numerous Kill Shots this season, which could allow Gonzaga to go one or more 10-0 runs during this game.
The Zags own a large advantage in post-up and pick-and-roll efficiency on offense, meaning a pre-tip buy and possible props on Drew Timme are needed.
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