NCAA Tournament Unders: The Important Trend Bettors Need to Know
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Shaka Smart (Marquette).
Bettors and fans paying close attention to the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 may have noticed a glaring betting trend — and it has nothing to do with Cinderella upsets.
Rather, betting unders in the NCAA Tournament produced one of the largest edges we’ve ever tracked during March Madness.
2023 NCAA Tournament Over/Unders
NCAA Tournament Round of 64 games were 27-9 to the under. At a 75% clip, it’s the best win percentage for tourney unders in the last 30 years, according to our own Director of Research Evan Abrams.
Friday was nearly a clean sweep. The first seven games of the day went under the closing betting total, as did seven of the final nine thereafter.
| Game | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State 72 USC 62 | 136.5 | Under |
| Xavier 72 Kennesaw Staete 67 | 152.5 | Under |
| Baylor 74 UCSB 56 | 141.5 | Under |
| Saint Mary’s 63 VCU 51 | 123.5 | Under |
| Marquette 78 Vermont 61 | 141.5 | Under |
| Pitt 59 Iowa State 41 | 131.5 | Under |
| Creighton 72 NC State 63 | 148.5 | Under |
| UConn 87 Iona 63 | 146.5 | Over |
| FDU 63 Purdue 58 | 146.5 | Under |
| Kentucky 61 Providence 53 | 141.5 | Under |
| Miami 63 Drake 56 | 146.5 | Under |
| Gonzaga 82 Grand Canyon 70 | 154 | Under |
| FAU 66 Memphis 65 | 151.5 | Under |
| Kansas State 77 Montana State 65 | 139.5 | Over |
| Indiana 71 Kent State 60 | 138 | Under |
| TCU 72 Arizona State 70 | 142.5 | Under |
Some of the games don’t even feel close.
Iowa State, for example, had trouble topping 40 points.
It was the lowest point total of the year for the Cyclones, who actually experienced a pregame issue with the rims, potentially aiding in the low-scoring rock fight on Friday.
Thursday’s Princeton-Arizona (59-55) total, meanwhile, closed at 153.5. The 39.5-point difference between final and close is one of the largest in NCAA Tournament history.
Furman and San Diego State meet early in Saturday’s Round of 32, with an over/under of 135.5.
Let’s check out the other over/unders for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament (via FanDuel).
Duke vs. Tennessee
2:40 p.m. on CBS
Over/Under: 125.5
Pick: Under 125.5 |
Arkansas vs. Kansas
5:15 p.m. on CBS
Over/Under: 143.5
Pick: Under 143.5 |
Princeton vs. Missouri
6:10 p.m. on TNT
Over/Under: 145.5
Pick: Under 145.5 |
Auburn vs. Houston
7:10 p.m. on TBS
Over/Under: 132.5
Pick: Under 132.5 |
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Penn State vs. Texas
7:45 p.m. on CBS
Over/Under: 137.5
Pick: Under 137.5 |
Northwestern vs. UCLA
8:40 p.m. on TNT
Over/Under: 125
Pick: Under 125 |
Maryland vs. Alabama
9:40 p.m. on TBS
Over/Under: 142.5
Pick: Under 142.5 |
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