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NCAA Tournament Unders: The Important Trend Bettors Need to Know

NCAA Tournament Unders: The Important Trend Bettors Need to Know article feature image

Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Shaka Smart (Marquette).

Bettors and fans paying close attention to the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 may have noticed a glaring betting trend — and it has nothing to do with Cinderella upsets.

Rather, betting unders in the NCAA Tournament produced one of the largest edges we’ve ever tracked during March Madness.

2023 NCAA Tournament Over/Unders

NCAA Tournament Round of 64 games were 27-9 to the under. At a 75% clip, it’s the best win percentage for tourney unders in the last 30 years, according to our own Director of Research Evan Abrams.

Friday was nearly a clean sweep. The first seven games of the day went under the closing betting total, as did seven of the final nine thereafter.

Game Total O/U
Michigan State 72 USC 62 136.5 Under
Xavier 72 Kennesaw Staete 67 152.5 Under
Baylor 74 UCSB 56 141.5 Under
Saint Mary’s 63 VCU 51 123.5 Under
Marquette 78 Vermont 61 141.5 Under
Pitt 59 Iowa State 41 131.5 Under
Creighton 72 NC State 63 148.5 Under
UConn 87 Iona 63 146.5 Over
FDU 63 Purdue 58 146.5 Under
Kentucky 61 Providence 53 141.5 Under
Miami 63 Drake 56 146.5 Under
Gonzaga 82 Grand Canyon 70 154 Under
FAU 66 Memphis 65 151.5 Under
Kansas State 77 Montana State 65 139.5 Over
Indiana 71 Kent State 60 138 Under
TCU 72 Arizona State 70 142.5 Under

Some of the games don’t even feel close.

Iowa State, for example, had trouble topping 40 points.

It was the lowest point total of the year for the Cyclones, who actually experienced a pregame issue with the rims, potentially aiding in the low-scoring rock fight on Friday.

Thursday’s Princeton-Arizona (59-55) total, meanwhile, closed at 153.5. The 39.5-point difference between final and close is one of the largest in NCAA Tournament history.

Furman and San Diego State meet early in Saturday’s Round of 32, with an over/under of 135.5.

Let’s check out the other over/unders for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament (via FanDuel).

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Duke vs. Tennessee 

2:40 p.m. on CBS

Over/Under: 125.5

Arkansas vs. Kansas 

5:15 p.m. on CBS

Over/Under: 143.5

Princeton vs. Missouri 

6:10 p.m. on TNT

Over/Under: 145.5

Auburn vs. Houston 

7:10 p.m. on TBS

Over/Under: 132.5

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Penn State vs. Texas 

7:45 p.m. on CBS

Over/Under: 137.5

Northwestern vs. UCLA

8:40 p.m. on TNT

Over/Under: 125

Maryland vs. Alabama

9:40 p.m. on TBS

Over/Under: 142.5

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