College Basketball Odds, Pick for New Mexico vs Saint Mary’s

After sharing the WCC title with the Gonzaga Bulldogs in 2022-2023, the Saint Mary’s Gaels return a similar rotation of players for what could be a solo title this season.

They will take on the New Mexico Lobos, which brought back multiple key pieces, on Thursday.

Going into the season, the Lobos are second in KenPom efficiency in the Mountain West. The MWC is the tougher of the two conferences, but let's find out if that will impact our New Mexico vs Saint Mary's odds and prediction, including a college basketball betting guide for Thursday, Nov. 9.

Richard Pitino brings back Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. after they accounted for over 25 points and 6.8 assists per game in 2022-23. Both can shoot the deep ball when needed, too.

Pitino also added Jemarl Baker, Jr. (Fresno State), Mustapha Amzil (Dayton), Nelly Junior Joseph (Iona), Isaac Mushila (Texas A&M CC), Tru Washington (freshman) and JT Toppin (freshman). This team has a substantial amount of talent, which could lead it to a MWC title.

Last year, however, the Lobos did struggle on defense. They ranked just 120th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, allowing an effective field goal percentage of 50.5%. They took care of Texas Southern on Monday — limiting the Tigers to only 55 points — but Saint Mary’s is a more efficient beast.

One area the Lobos can exploit is getting to the free-throw line. Last season, the Gaels ranked 143rd in free-throw attempt rate while the Lobos ranked 25th. This will likely be a major source of points for New Mexico, as it doesn't shoot much from 3 (353rd in 3-point attempt rate) while Mary’s can defend the 3 well.

Finally, UNM runs at the 27th-quickest Adjusted Tempo and Saint Mary’s ranks 351st going into the season. The Lobos are going to try to push the pace while Mary’s slows it down, so early in the game, bettors should get a glimpse into which team holds the upper hand.

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Randy Bennett is one of the most underrated coaches in college hoops. He knows his players, and his scheme works. There's a reason the Gaels came away with wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State (the eventual runner-up) last season. They were prepared, and they will be for this one.

The Gaels lost Logan Johnson and Kyle Bowen, but they add Jordan Ross (freshman). Aidan Mahaney, Augustas Marciulionis, Alex Ducas, Joshua Jefferson and Mitchell Saxen will fill the starting lineup.

Last season, the Lobos allowed the 87th-ranked 3-point attempt rate. Yes, they ranked 19th in Open 3 Rate (Shot Quality), but they ranked 224th in Off the Dribble 3s and 240th in Catch and Shoot 3s.

Since the Lobos rarely shoot from deep, this could be the difference maker between the two. If Saint Mary’s limits fouls, this is a major edge.

Adding to that, the Lobos ranked 310th in Finishing at the Rim on defense. Saint Mary’s ranked 18th in attacking the rim frequency (again, Shot Quality). Yes, New Mexico has a much different frontcourt, but this could be another issue.

Finally, New Mexico ranked 217th in rebounding last season while Saint Mary’s ranked 65th. Adding Junior Joseph, Mushila and Amzil will help, but Saxen, Ducas, Harry Wessels and Jefferson are a lot to handle down low.

This should be another edge for the Gaels.

Pitino has the continuity in his backcourt, but Saint Mary’s has enough 3-point shooters to negate the effectiveness of the Lobos' guards.

With Saint Mary’s returning much of the same lineup, it should slow the pace to its liking, hit 3s and win the rebounding battle.

As long as the Gaels limit fouling House and Mashburn, they will cover this line. Take it to -6.

Pick: Saint Mary's -5 (Play to -6)

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