Notre Dame vs UNC Odds, Pick for Tuesday

This is an interesting matchup between North Carolina, the ACC leader, and Notre Dame, one of of the hottest teams in the conference.

The Irish have won five of their past six games and continue to surprise in year one under Micah Shrewsberry.

Meanwhile, North Carolina can clinch a share of the ACC title and the top seed in the conference tournament with a win on Tuesday night.

The Tar Heels opened as heavy favorites, but I don't think this will be the walk-in-the-park that many UNC fans might expect.

The record might not suggest it, but Shrewsberry has done a phenomenal job in his first season in South Bend.

Notre Dame graduated five seniors from last year's starting lineup and lost of its most talented returnees to the transfer portal after Mike Brey announced he'd be calling it quits after 23 years.

Despite a lack of overall talent, Notre Dame is 7-11 in league play due to a commitment to the defensive end of the floor.

Notre Dame is 25th nationally in Ken Pom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings.

In recent wins over Wake Forest and Clemson, the Irish held explosive offenses to just 65 and 62 points.

Notre Dame has covered in 13 of its 18 league games, mainly because the market still hasn't adjusted to the level of improvement the Irish have shown from November and December.

No team improved more in Pomeroy's efficiency rankings in the month of February.

To cover a 14th league game and have a chance at a huge upset, Notre Dame must continue to guard. It'll also need to shoot above its season averages.

After a lackluster 2022-2023, North Carolina has been on a mission all season.

The Tar Heels certainly set out to win the ACC and that opportunity is right in front of them.

It's worth noting that starting wing Cormac Ryan spent four years in South Bend with the Irish, and this will be his first and likely only matchup against his old team.

The point guard matchup in this game will also be worth watching — RJ Davis will likely win ACC POY and Markus Burton is the frontrunner for ACC ROY.

Armando Bacot should have an advantage on the interior, so I wouldn't be surprised if Hubert Davis directs his guards to feed Bacot on the block.

Carolina plays Duke on Saturday, but it needs to remain focused on the task at hand before shifting gears to its second battle with the Blue Devils.

The market is once again unwilling to adjust to the improvements Notre Dame has made over the past several weeks.

The Irish have been a covering machine throughout ACC play, and 15.5 is just too many points, especially considering that Notre Dame has one of the best defenses in the conference.

Carolina should eventually pull away a bit and get the win, but I'm backing the Irish to hang inside this massive number as a road underdog.

Pick: Notre Dame +15.5

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