Oakland vs Milwaukee Pick & Prediction for Horizon Title Game

Alas, someone other than Northern Kentucky or Wright State.

Oakland's 2024 magic carpet ride — in Greg Kampe's fifth decade on the sidelines — continued with a nail biting victory over Cleveland State on Monday. The top seed in the Horizon League is one win away from the NCAA tournament, but the surging Milwaukee Panthers stand in its way.

Head coach Bart Lundy installed wholesale changes midway through the season — largely due to a flurry of injuries — but the brilliant head honcho pushed all the right buttons. With star guard BJ Freeman back, healthy and cooking with gas, this deep Panther squad is a nightmare matchup.

The Grizzlies escaped both regular season meetings against the Panthers, but not without a scare. Oakland needed double overtime to get by Milwaukee in the most recent meeting, avoiding revenge from the 100-95 fireworks display in the first matchup.

That first precedent may be more predictive of what to expect tonight. Oakland's sharpshooters — Jack Gohlke and Blake Lampman — are as enthusiastic as ever, with Gohlke fresh off a 21-point explosion last night.

However, their first priority will be taking care of the rock, which they excelled at in both regular season meetings. Steady hand DQ Cole and veteran backup Tone Hunter have both been rock solid in the ball security department, which is critical against Lundy's pressure.

Staying out of foul trouble is a must, too, with Oakland's once deep rotation dwindling late in the year. Kampe's zone allows his top dogs to play big minutes and still conserve energy, but five players clocked a heavy 35 minutes or more in the narrow win over Cleveland State.

Milwaukee's superior depth could be the secret sauce to wearing down Oakland. That could be negated by their own fatigue, however, as tonight marks the Panthers' fourth game in seven days.

Also, as mentioned above, Milwaukee's pressure didn't deter Oakland much in the first two meetings.

The Panthers' recent run is largely rooted in a relentless pursuit of the rim. Consequently, the zebras have rewarded Milwaukee for its feverish rim assault — the Panthers have attempted a whopping 85 free throws in the three tournament games leading up to tonight.

This is where Oakland's zone can be a problem – Milwaukee's base offensive action, which is predicated on getting its athletes going downhill toward the rim, is less effective.

Despite Milwaukee's offensive outbursts against Oakland in both regular season meetings, the Panthers will struggle to replicate that blueprint tonight.

Their best offense could be on the glass, via supplementing misses with second and third shot opportunities, which is always a sound strategy against any zone.

However, Oakland's mastery of its own zone is shining through in its rebounding prowess, courtesy of Trey Townsend and Chris Conway on the boards

The early money bet Milwaukee from +5 to +4, but I'm looking to counter punch with the Grizzlies if this falls any lower.

This is not an official play for me at -4, but I'll be monitoring throughout the day.

Pick: Oakland -4 (Lean) | Oakland -3 (Official Play)