Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds & Picks: Why to Bet Over/Under
Photo by Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jayveous McKinnis (Ole Miss)
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds
|Ole Miss Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Mississippi State Odds|
-110o / -110u
The Bulldogs won their first 11 games before dropping three straight to enter this matchup at 11-3 under first-year head coach Chris Jans.
Meanwhile, the Rebels have also fallen into a slump, losing four of their last five to sit at 8-6 on the season and 0-2 in SEC play.
This is one of those games that is circled on your calendar each year. Once you add in the fact that both teams are looking for their first SEC victory, this should be a great battle at the Hump.
Which version of Kermit Davis’ squad will we get this weekend: the one that beat Stanford and pushed No. 7 Tennessee to the limit, or the team that lost to North Alabama and only beat UT Martin by four at home?
The problems haven’t been on the defensive side of the floor, where the Rebels rank inside the top 75 in AdjD (69th), EFG% (53rd) and 2-point defense (28th), according to Bart Torvik.
This is also the same defense that held Tennessee (49th AdjO) and Oklahoma (26th AdjO) to some of their lowest point totals.
Offensively, Ole Miss is led by junior Matthew Murrell, who averages 14.4 points and 2.4 assists per game. However, Murrell is coming off his worst two games of the season, scoring just 14 combined points in the losses to the Volunteers and Alabama.
MSU was coasting in Jans’ debut season, but teams may be starting to figure out the weaknesses of the Bulldogs now that there is tape on them.
Jans’ squad was blown out in Knoxville, Tennessee, by 34 points after losing by 11 at home to the Crimson Tide to open SEC play.
Similar to the Rebels, the Bulldogs have not had issues getting stops, as Jans already has them playing elite defense.
On the campaign, MSU ranks inside the top 50 in multiple categories, including AdjD (17th), EFG% (34th), turnover % (13th) and opponent 2-point shooting (42nd).
Time will tell if Jans’ program can keep this up as the schedule gets tougher on a nightly basis in the SEC. But he’s a couple of scorers away from making this a dangerous team with postseason aspirations.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Betting Pick
When you have a heated rivalry game, you know the intensity levels are going to be very high, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
Once you add in the fact that these are teams that are much better on defense compared to scoring the ball, this all screams under.
We talked about the defensive metrics above for both teams, so let me lay out the awful offensive numbers.
Both are outside the top 200 in EFG% and 3-point %, while also sitting above the top 170 in 2-point%. In their first two SEC contests, they each averaged around 60 points per game.
Another tip towards a low-scoring affair is the fact that both squads play at a very slow tempo, with Ole Miss entering the game ranked 259th in pace, according to KenPom.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are even slower at 334th.
I also like the scheduling spot for both programs. With them getting embarrassed in their last matchups, these veteran coaches will use that as motivation and focus for a response on the defensive end.
Everything points to an under in a heated rivalry game down in Mississippi.