Rovell: Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State Final Four Prediction

Rovell: Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State Final Four Prediction article feature image

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Florida Atlantic and San Diego State get to the Final Four and I'm going to be very honest, I have no idea who is going to win this game.

But I do love the under.

Florida Atlantic and San Diego State are both in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Despite that, the total opened at the relatively high number of 132.5 — which I think is rife with recency bias.

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That total is largely influenced by the 79 points that FAU put on Kansas State, a stout defensive team.

But San Diego State is such an under team that it's impossible to ignore. Aztec games have gone under 12 games in a row by an average of 12.7 points. Only three of those games saw more than 132 points scored.

Not only is their defense good, but their offense has been incredibly lackluster, too. San Diego State has shot less than 38% from the field in back-to-back games, only the fifth team since 2005 to do that in Sweet 16 games or later.

And then comes the glorious stadium. Gotta love the NCAA. Play the championship rounds in a venue — and with courts — that no one plays all season!

This is the 14th college basketball game in Reliant since 2005 and the under is 8-5, with an average of 5.8 points to the under.

It's down to 131.5 at BetMGM but I still love it.

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