Tonight, a couple college basketball brouhahas take place that's aren't the most popular games of the day as far as the general public is concerned, but that hasn't stopped sharp bettors from shying away.
By combining our betting market data and tools and expert analysis, we've pinpointed two matchups that professional bettors can't stop hammering.
Rider at Fairfield
7 p.m. ET
Betting market analysis: Fairfield has struggled mightily, losing five of their past six and compiling a 2-5 record in conference play. The good news? Their lone win during this recent six-game stretch came in their last game out.
With public bettors using the “they-can’t-do-that-twice-in-a-row” logic, Fairfield has barely eclipsed 30% of bets today. Facing Rider at home, they've received support from only 31% of bettors. Despite that, they've seen the line move in their favor, thanks to a heavy majority of the money landing on the Stags.
On-court analysis: According to college hoops aficionado Jordan Majewski, Fairfield recently added a key player who should help their chances tonight.
"Fairfield's offense has gotten a boost from Aidas Kavaliauskas, who became eligible at the start of the semester. He played his first game against Rider and wasn't quite ready, but in his past two contests Kavaliauskas has averaged 14 points and 10.5 assists, while shooting 11-of-19 from the floor. Also, up until last year, Fairfield's coach, Sydney Johnson, was great in a revenge spot."
Creighton at St. John's
8:30 p.m. ET
Betting market analysis: Though St. John's is a miserable 0-8 in conference play and on an eight-game losing streak, we've actually seen sharp backing on the Red Storm. This morning, there was a steam move triggered on the Sports Insights Sportsbook Insider on St. John's at +3.5 that pushed them all the way to +2 across most of the industry.
We've also seen two large dips in dollars on Creighton, similar to the infamous crypto tank of January 17, 2018. The first accompanied the steam move, while the second came within the past hour.
On-court analysis: Jordan notes that St. John's should benefit from a key injury that took place just a few days ago.
"This is Creighton's second game without Martin Krampelj. Before his season-ending injury, Krampelj was grabbing opponent misses at the Big East's second-highest rate and was shooting an absurd 80.5 percent from 2 and 84 percent at the rim. So much of McDermott's outstanding offense relied on his ability to exploit his constant one vs one coverage in the paint, as teams couldn't afford to double team him.
The Blue Jays missed him on Saturday in a loss at Providence, and they'll miss him again tonight on the road. Yes, St. John's is still winless in the Big East, but they're maybe one of the best 0-8 teams in conference history, having lost very winnable games to Seton Hall, Georgetown (twice), Villanova, Xavier and, of course, at Creighton earlier this season."
It looks like things are lining up nicely for both the desperately due Red Storm, and the struggling Stags.
Photo via Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports
