The No. 16 Siena Saints play the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 27.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -50000. Meanwhile, Siena is the underdog at +27.5 with a moneyline of +5500. The total is set at 135.5 points.
Here’s my Siena vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
Siena vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -27.5
My Siena vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Siena vs Duke Odds
| Siena Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -110 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | +5500 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -110 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | -50000 |
- Siena vs Duke spread: Duke -27.5
- Siena vs Duke over/under: 135.5 points
- Siena vs Duke moneyline: Siena +5500, Duke -50000
Siena vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Siena Basketball
Shout out to Gerry McNamara on getting Siena back in the tournament for the first time since 2010.
Siena had the most efficient offense in the MAAC while leading the conference in 2-point shooting (54.7%).
6-foot-5 Sophomore guard Gavin Doty leads the team in points (17.9 per game) and rebounds (seven per game) while coming off back-to-back strong performances in the MAAC tournament.
According to Synergy, Doty ranks in the 94th percentile in points per possession as the ball handler out of the pick-and-roll.
He is at his best getting downhill and either pulling up for a short middy or finishing around the rim, where he shoots 59%.
For Siena to cover the spread against Duke, Doty will have to create off the dribble, as he struggles to be efficient as a catch-and-shoot threat, shooting 33% from deep.
Senior guard Justice Shoats is the second leading scorer (13.2 points per game) while also leading the team in assists and steals per game.
Shoats isn't a 3-point threat, having attempted only 39 this season. He is looking to do his damage off the bounce, whether that's mid-range pull-up jumpers (180 FGA) or finishing around the rim (147 FGA).
Though they're an MAAC school, the Saints do have a 7-footer. Senior center Riley Mulvey stands at 7-foot-0, 240 lbs.
Mulvey, who is an Iowa transfer, was a role player all season, averaging 17 minutes per game. But during the conference tournament, he played 35 minutes per game, including 40 minutes in the championship game, where he had 11 points, 11 rebounds, and five blocks.
Duke Basketball
Duke is arguably the most battle-tested team in the NCAA tournament due to its gauntlet non-conference schedule and its recent injury to two starters.
The Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament despite being short-handed, thanks to Cam Boozer's monster first two games and role players Cayden Boozer and Nik Khamenia stepping up significantly.
Caleb Foster won't be back anytime soon, and at the time of writing, Pat Ngongba has not participated in any on-court activities but has started ramping up treatment for his foot in hopes of practicing later this week before Thursday's game, per Jon Scheyer.
Duke will not need Ngongba back to beat Siena, but the Devils will want him back to face the winner of Ohio State vs. TCU.
This is yet another game where I am watching Cayden Boozer's growth as the starting point guard in the first round. Maybe there are some early game jitters, but throughout the course of the game, we will see Cayden Boozer settle in.
Siena vs. Duke Pick, Betting Analysis
Duke's defense slipped a bit in the conference tournament, ranking 36th nationally in efficiency over that three-game span.
Role players have stepped up and shown themselves to be more comfortable with their workload over the course of the ACC Tournament.
With a week off to regroup and patch things up on the defensive side of the ball, Duke's defense will make a statement in this game.
Siena's two leading scorers do their damage as ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll. Now the Saints are about to face a Duke defense that ranks in the 99th percentile in guarding that type of action.
Duke's defense should set the tone by forcing Siena to take bad shots.
My Pick: Duke -27.5
