The SMU Mustangs take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, North Carolina. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1350. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks for January 10, 2026.
SMU vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Over 158.5 (Play to 159)
My SMU vs Duke best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs. Duke Odds, Spread
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -102 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +800 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -118 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -1350 |
- SMU vs Duke spread: Duke -13.5
- SMU vs Duke over/under: 157.5 points
- SMU vs Duke moneyline: SMU +800, Duke -1350
SMU vs Duke NCAAB Betting Preview
SMU Basketball
SMU is coming off a tough loss at Clemson. Before the Clemson game, it posted a statement win against UNC, scoring 97 points while shooting 60% from the field.
The Mustangs have one of the most underrated backcourts in college basketball with Boopie Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr. and B.J. Edwards.
Miller averages almost 21 points, seven assists and two steals per game. Miller has had five double-doubles this season, including his 27-point, 12-assist performance against UNC.
Pierre can shoot it from anywhere and had a season-high 35 points in the Mustangs' win against Texas A&M.
Lastly, Edwards does everything for this team at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds. Along with his scoring (13.5 PPG), he averages six rebounds, 5.5 assists and leads the team with 2.5 steals per game.
The guard trio has proven to step up in big games, and after SMU's loss at Clemson, I expect those three to be aggressive early against a defense that's shown inconsistencies this season.
Duke Basketball
Duke is 14-1 and most importantly, coming off its best half of defense since its win at Michigan State.
Duke's second-half adjustment to face guard Ryan Conwell and have its big men play higher up against ball screens stifled Louisville's offense, which only scored 26 points in the second half after scoring 47 in the first.
The Blue Devils will need that type of perimeter defense on Saturday with SMU coming to town.
Dame Sarr is Duke's best defender on the perimeter, and the Blue Devils rely on his length and athleticism to make it hard for opposing guards.
If Sarr can do just enough on the offensive end, then I expect him to play an intricate part in this game due to his defense.
Most importantly for Duke, it has Cam Boozer, who's as deadly with his facilitating as he is with his scoring.
Look for Duke to play through Boozer early and attack SMU's Samet Yigitoglu, who's dealt with foul trouble in his career, including last season against Duke (four fouls).
SMU vs. Duke Betting Analysis
I really like what I saw from Duke's defense against Louisville in the second half, but can it do it again against SMU's talented backcourt?
Duke will dictate points in the paint by playing through Boozer, something SMU won't have an answer for.
On the flip side, can Duke's perimeter defense stay in front of SMU's guards that thrive on iso's and pick-and-rolls? That's something Florida State had a lot of success with against Duke a couple of games ago.
I'm expecting some high-level buckets to be made on Saturday.
My Pick: Over 158.5 (Play to 159)
