St. John’s vs Villanova Odds, Pick for Saturday

Rick Pitino carries a larger-than-life presence like few others in college basketball.

Over the years, despite his misgivings, his teams have always played with personality. His return to the bright lights of the Big East has only increased that allure, with each new game on the schedule seemingly another chance for the Pitino legend to grow.

On Saturday, that continues when he makes his first trip back to Villanova to face the program that has ruled the conference in the years since he last roamed a Big East sideline.

Here's St. John's vs. Villanova odds and a pick for Saturday.

In his first year back in the big time, Rick Pitino has done an admirable job building the kind of roster and scheme that has made him successful.

St. John's relies on two guards to initiate its offense, both transfers from the mid-major ranks. Dannis Jenkins was with Pitino last year at Iona and has capably jumped to Big East competition, posting 12 points and six assists per outing. The same could be said of Jordan Dingle, last season's Ivy League Player of the Year at Penn, who's now pitching in 10.9 points per game for the Red Storm.

They each have made life easier for all-conference-caliber big man Joel Soriano. After the coaching change, Pitino scored a coup when Soriano agreed to stay aboard. He's been among the most dominant big men in college hoops, with nine double-doubles in 14 games this year. Soriano is the crucial cog in Pitino's plan to hammer the offensive glass. St. John's ranks 3rd in the nation in nabbing its misses, thanks mainly to Soriano pulling down 4.4 per game.

Jenkins and Dingle are shifty penetrators with the ball in their hands. Soriano has plenty of gravity in the paint. The issue for St. John's has been the lack of shooting to take advantage of all that defensive attention pulling into the paint. Dingle leads St. John's with just 1.6 made 3s per game.

The resulting offensive attack is an onslaught into the paint via the dribble or the offensive glass. For the most part, that's kept St. John's competitive and has them in position to fight for an NCAA Tournament berth in March.

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Villanova remains a very frustrating team to watch or to bet on. The Wildcats rank in the top 20 nationally in 3-point attempts per game and 3-point rate but just 200th in 3-point shooting percentage.

There are three possibilities for that discrepancy.

The first possibility is that Villanova lacks collective shooting talent. I'm dubious that's the case.

The second possibility is that Villanova could be a decent to above-average shooting team, simply starting the season cold. There's some evidence for that theory. The Wildcats are shooting free throws at the third-best percentage in the country. That's become commonplace for Villanova, which has led the nation in that stat for the last two years. That would indicate there is some shooting skill on this roster.

Four of Villanova's rotation players (Eric Dixon, TJ Bamba, Justin Moore, and Brendan Hausen) are shooting worse from 3-point land this year than in the past. You can't expect everyone to hold or improve on their career shooting splits, but that quartet includes some pivotal pieces for Kyle Neptune's offense.

The final theory rests not on the Wildcats' ability to shoot the ball but their shot selection, either by player choices on the court or a coaching philosophy that doesn't mesh with the skills of the roster. Villanova might be able to make open shots, yet are shooting too many contested or ill-advised 3s.

The stats and the eye test suggest it's a little bit from each of the latter two theories, which makes for the most frustrating outcome for Villanova fans and bettors alike.

It likely means Villanova will continue to hoist a ton of 3s, with wild variance from game to game. I don't think it's a coincidence that Villanova is 5-0 when shooting 25 or fewer 3s, including wins over North Carolina, Texas Tech, Creighton, and Maryland.

If Villanova's offense is going to click, the Wildcats will need more from Justin Moore, who has now missed four straight games. Oddly enough, Villanova is unbeaten without their fifth-year star, though the Wildcats desperately needed his veteran ball-handling late against Creighton and Xavier.

On paper, this game sets up nicely for Villanova, especially on the defensive end of the floor.

St. John's attacks the paint relentlessly, but that's Villanova's defensive strength. The Wildcats rank 322nd nationally in percentage of points allowed inside the arc while also only allowing 19 free throw attempts per game (inflated by Penn's 34 foul shots versus the Wildcats).

Villanova also cleans the glass at a top-25 level in the country, offsetting St. John's attack on the offensive glass. The Wildcats rebound well as a team, with players like Tyler Burton, TJ Bamba, and Hakim Hart more than doing their part in the rebounding column.

So, the thought would be to back the home team, right?

Unfortunately, this game won't be played on paper, and one glaring mismatch prevents me from backing the Cats.

Kyle Neptune struggled at times in his first two seasons leading Villanova. He's a young coach with plenty of room to grow into the role as he continues to develop.

That said, my conscience won't allow me to put my money on him against Rick Pitino, especially not giving points. Since 2006, Pitino has been 28-19-2 ATS as a road dog (.592).

Therefore, I'll call the spread a stay away and lean towards the Under.

Villanova is averaging only 63.6 points per game over its past six against teams not named DePaul (and yes, it's fair to cherry-pick around DePaul since they are such a disaster).

Pick: Under 144.5 or Better

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