NCAAB Odds, Pick for TCU vs Old Dominion

TCU and Old Dominion meet in Honolulu on Thursday afternoon for game two of the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic.

The winner will advance to the semifinal to play either Nevada or Temple on Friday.

The Horned Frogs have had the better start to the season between the two squads, coming into the contest with an 8-1 record.

Meanwhile, the Monarchs have lost three straight, but this could be the game that turns their season around.

This has been an excellent start to the campaign for TCU under coach Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs have an average winning margin of 21.2, which ranks eighth nationally, and only lost to a ranked Clemson team.

You do have to wonder how much of that can be attributed to a very soft schedule. Through nine games, TCU's strength of schedule ranks 361st according to KenPom.

This mid-season tournament does allow the team to play some solid competition before Big 12 play in a couple of weeks, and TCU has thrived in these tournaments under Dixon.

Since he was hired in 2016, the Horned Frogs have won five of their seven mid-season tournaments, going 13-2 in those games.

With how the team is playing, I would expect TCU to make another run at picking up a trophy in Hawaii.

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After leading his team to a winning record a season ago, veteran coach Jeff Jones hoped to carry that momentum into this season. However, the challenging non-conference schedule has got the best of the Monarchs so far.

According to KenPom, Old Dominion has played the 84th toughest schedule in the country, which includes a pair of games against Quad 1 opponents.

The difficult schedule has not slowed down Chaunce Jenkins. The junior guard leads the team in scoring at 16.7 points per game, finishing in double digits in every contest.

Vasean Allette and Tyrone Williams give Old Dominion another pair of solid scorers, but it still has not been enough to pick up victories this season.

Regardless of the difference in strength of schedule, all of the signs still point to a commanding victory for the Horned Frogs. However, I like another way to back the Big 12 school.

My best bet is for Old Dominion to fall under the team total of 64.5.

I struggle to see how the Monarchs will consistently get good shots. On the season, they rank outside the Top 240 by Bart Torvik in AdjO (258th), EFG% (241st), free throws (260th) and 2-point percentage (271st).

That doesn't bode well against a TCU defense that ranks 21st in AdjD and inside the top 70 in EFG% (67th) and defending shots inside the 3-point line (65th).

Meanwhile, this is the same Horned Frogs’ defensive unit that has held four of six lesser opponents to under this same total. With Dixon’s track record at the school in these sorts of tournaments, I expect him to have his team ready in this one.

It wouldn’t shock me at all if this turns into a lower-scoring affair. This is a game that will be played in the middle of the day in what will likely be an empty gym.

That tends to give the advantage to the team with the better defense, which is the Horned Frogs in this matchup.

Pick: Old Dominion Team Total Under 64.5

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