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Utah State vs Boise State Odds & Prediction: Broncos Defense to Shut Down Aggies

Utah State vs Boise State Odds & Prediction: Broncos Defense to Shut Down Aggies article feature image
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Pictured: Marcus Shaver Jr. #10 of the Boise State Broncos. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Utah State vs. Boise State Odds

Saturday, Jan. 7
6:30 p.m. ET
FS1
Utah State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-110
138
-110o / -110u
N/A
Boise State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
-110
138
-110o / -110u
N/A
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

It’s a battle of the best in the Mountain West on Saturday as 13-2 Utah State makes the trip to Boise to take on the Broncos. The Aggies are the best scoring offense in the Mountain West, averaging 83.3 points per game. On the other hand, Boise State has been the best scoring defense in the conference, giving up just 59.7 points per game.

The Aggies hold a solid 34-20 lead over the Broncos in the all-time series. However, Utah State is just 12-15 in games played at Boise and has lost four in a row against the Broncos.

Now, as one of the most surprising teams in the college basketball, can the Aggies end the losing streak? Let’s dig into the odds.


Utah State Aggies

Expectations were high for Ryan Odom when he arrived in Logan prior to last season. The former UMBC head coach had proven he could lead mid-major teams to success both in conference, and against blue chip competition. Those expectations quickly turned to doubt after the Aggies finished below .500 for the first time in three years last season.

Things didn’t look promising this season as Odom didn’t return a single player who averaged 10 points or more from last year’s team. But now, at 13-2, hopes are high in Logan.

The Aggies are top 10 when it comes to effective field goal percentage, three-point percentage and bench points. Sharpshooter Steven Ashworth, who is averaging 16.9 points per game, leads Utah State’s offense. He is the best three-point shooter in the nation, hitting 53.77% of his shots from beyond the arc.

On the defensive side of the ball, Utah State has held teams to just 40.8% shooting and an effective field goal percentage of just 47.1%. Utah State should be able to limit a Boise State team that has struggled — if it can stay out of foul trouble.

Utah State is averaging 17.7 fouls per game, and has allowed teams to take 18 free throws per game. Against a Boise State team that is 55th in the nation when it comes to free-throw percentage, the less the Broncos go to the line the better.

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Boise State Broncos

If Boise State is going to extend its win streak against the Aggies, its defense is going to need to lead the way. Boise State has held teams to an effective field goal percentage of just 43.7%. The biggest factor against Utah State will be defending the perimeter. Boise is 13th in the nation holding teams to just 28.1% shooting from three.

It should be a battle off the glass for Boise State, but if they can win it, there’s a good chance they win this game outright. Utah State has outrebounded its opponent in all but three of its wins this season. The Broncos biggest advantage will be limiting Utah State’s second chances.

Boise State has held teams to an offensive rebounding percentage of just 21.6%.  If the Broncos can limit offensive rebounds, they can cut into the 13 second-chance points per game Utah State has relied on lately.


Utah State vs. Boise State Betting Pick

The Aggies are a good team, there’s no denying that. They’ve faced a solid, 94th-ranked schedule. They’ve gone up against tough opponets and come out on top, but haven’t faced a defense anywhere close to this Broncos team.

Boise State is 13th in efficiency, 13th in three-point percentage allowed and limits offensive rebounds far better than any team the Aggies have faced.

Utah State is good and I legitimately believe it could win the Mountain West, but in Boise, this Broncos defense is going to catch the Aggies by surprise and throw them off their game.

Back the Broncos at -2 or better to get their fifth consecutive win at home.

Pick:  Boise State -2 or Better

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