Villanova vs. DePaul Betting Odds, Pick (Feb. 19): Sharp Action, Pro System Aligned on Spread
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Collin Gillespie and Romeo Weems
- Updated odds for tonight's Villanova vs. DePaul matchup have the Wildcats favored by 4.5 points.
- Villanova's superior record and ranking has most bettors laying the points with the favorites.
- Sharp bettors and a PRO System, however, are suggesting that the betting value may lie with DePaul.
If you’re the wait-until-football-season-ends type of college hoops fan, you’re probably not surprised about DePaul’s 1-11, last-place Big East record and 13-12 mark overall. What you might find surprising, though, is that the Demons started the year off with nine straight wins. They were 12-1 entering conference play.
Things have obviously taken quite a turn for DePaul, and as such, most bettors have steered clear of their once money-making friends for the past couple months.
That’s the case again tonight, as DePaul hosts third-place and 12th-ranked Villanova (9 p.m. ET, CBSSN) as a relatively small favorite.
Villanova vs. DePaul Sharp Betting, System Pick
Villanova opened as just 5-point favorite at most books, and has attracted a potential slate-high 85% of tickets — only Auburn (87%) has a higher mark as of 12 p.m. ET.
Lopsided as the tickets may be, however, the actual money has been less so. That 85% backing has made up for just 66% of dollars hitting the spread, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are taking the points rather than laying them.
Sure enough, a pair of Sports Insights Bet Signals — indicators of market activity caused by sharp action — have triggered two moves coming as a result of smart money on DePaul (both at +5). As a result, the spread has moved away from the heavily popular side, shrinking to +4.5.
Sharp angle: DePaul (moved from +5 to +4.5) [In PA? Bet now at FanDuel.]
That heavily popularity of Villanova has also put DePaul in what’s historically been a profitable position.
In power-conference matchups since 2005, a team seeing less than 25% of spread bets has covered 55% of the time (710-589-31) at the closing number.
Our PRO System, which takes into account non-extreme totals, bumps that win rate up to 57%.
PRO System pick: DePaul (assuming a less than 25% backing) [In PA? Bet now at FanDuel.]