Why Purdue Championship Odds Are Mispriced: Where Value Lies

Why Purdue Championship Odds Are Mispriced: Where Value Lies article feature image

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Purdue is mispriced in the market, according to our data analytics team.

Contrary to popular narrative, Purdue should be the favorites to win it all going forward — yes, even over UConn, which has steamrolled its way to the Final Four.

That's partially on account of an easier matchup against NC State in the Final Four, yes. But it's also a testament to their roster construction, one that can combat a team like UConn on the interior and from three.

UConn in particular has shot dismally from three point all tournament. So long as Purdue stops them in transition to an adequate degree, that national championship game may be a lot closer than the public may believe based on narrative alone.

My colleague Sean Koerner, our head of data analytics, has developed an algorithm that set a price for each matchup — and each future — in the marketplace for this March Madness.

According to his data, Purdue should be just +121 to win it all. And UConn should be +148.

That's relative to a market at FanDuel that has Connecticut slotted in at -185 and Purdue at +190.

That's a nearly 11% edge. In other words, if you make only these sorts of wagers over the long run, you can expect to make roughly 11 cents for every dollar wagered.

In fact, Koerner regards Purdue as a -12 favorite over NC State for their upcoming Final Four tilt. That's relative to a market price of about Purdue -9.5, a number deflated purely on the backs of NC State's recent hot streak.

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