Women’s NCAA Tournament Picks: Texas vs. Louisville (Monday, March 20)

Texas vs. Louisville Odds

Monday, March 20

7 p.m. ET

ESPN

Texas Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-8 -110	130.5 -110o / -110u	-380

Louisville Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+8 -110	130.5 -110o / -110u	+300

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Texas hosts Louisville on Monday for a spot in the Sweet 16 against a familiar foe.

Louisville took Round 1 four months ago on Nov. 20, 71-63, but there was one key piece missing: playmaking Texas guard Rori Harmon.

Action has partnered with Her Hoop Stats for coverage of the 2023 Women's NCAA Tournament — check Action for Dano Mataya's best gameday bets through the national championship!

Texas Longhorns

The Horns dominated East Carolina in their first-round matchup on Saturday, 79-40. After giving up 15 points in the first quarter, Texas held ECU to single digits in each frame for the rest of the game.

Harmon, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, drew the assignment of leading scorer Danae McNeal, who scored 13 points on just 3-of-12 shooting.

Saturday's game marked the 12th time Texas held an opponent to 50 points or less this season.

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Louisville Cardinals

The Cardinals narrowly escaped an upset bid by No. 12 seed Drake on Saturday. Louisville never led by more than six points before eventually pulling out an 83-81 victory thanks to some late-game heroics from Hailey Van Lith.

Drake won the battle of the boards, 33-28, and shot the lights out from 3. It was the only game of the tournament in which both teams shot above 50% from the field.

Texas vs. Louisville Betting Pick

In 10 tournament games throughout Vic Schaefer's tenure at Texas, the Longhorns have held opponents to an average of 15 points less than their season averages.

The defensive intensity turns up in March, which explains why seven of those 10 games have gone under. The under has gone 8-2 over Texas' last 10 home games, and the Longhorns have seen their last 10 overall go under the total.

I believe Harmon will make it an extremely tough day at the office for Van Lith, Louisville’s leading scorer.

Texas also dominates the boards, leading to a lot of one-and-done possessions. Additionally, because the Longhorns shoot very few 3s, I expect a low-scoring affair.

Our Her Hoop Stats model predicts a 69-61 win for the Longhorns, but I like the under here.

Pick: Under 130.5