SMU vs. Nevada Odds & Betting Predictions - August 25, 2024

From Mismatches Week Zero piece; Nevada horrific defense but does return PBUs in the secondary. Finished inside T100 in on target allowed. SMU expected to swap Stone-Jennings early. Lashlee 8-5 Under on the road. Will add another unit live at 59 or higher on the Under

@Breese

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice SMU goes into this one with an extreme advantage, specifically on offense, returning eight starters, including star quarterback Preston Stone, who was nothing short of elite at times last year. His PFF passing grade of 91.0 ranked fourth nationally behind only top signal callers like Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels. Stone was efficient but also a playmaker, ranking third in big-time throws and eighth in EPA, with the entire receiving corps returning to make SMU's already top-10 passing EPA attack potentially even more dynamic in 2024. The offensive line loses maybe a couple of key players for the Mustangs but remains strong, as it tacks on Power 4 transfers to return 120 career starts up front. That will not only pay dividends in support of the passing game but also for an attack on the ground, which would check in to stay afloat at a robust 5.4 yards per carry average last season, with leaders Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson Jr. returning in its fold. Opposed to a Nevada defense that finished well outside the top 100 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed last year, SMU is on firm ground to dominate offensively. SMU will stack the defense in the front seven, as all seven of last year's top tacklers are back from a unit that finished fifth nationally in EPA/Play Allowed. That frontline strength will be important against Nevada's rush-heavy offense, which fought admirably a season ago. The top running back for Nevada was Sean Dollars, who averaged 3.5 yards per carry behind one of the country's worst offensive lines. As Nevada made no major improvements in its offseason, moving the ball on the ground against this staunch SMU defense will likely prove to be difficult. The passing game's not going to pose much of a problem out of Nevada. No key pass-catchers return for the Wolf Pack, and quarterback Lewis had an abysmal grade for passing last year from PFF of 46.0. Even if they want to throw more often, a basically all-new secondary and new defensive scheme for Nevada under Choate aren't the best look for SMU's high-octane passing attack.

Still like at 69.5 which is currently the most widely available number.