The Army Black Knights take on the East Carolina Pirates in Greenville, North Carolina, on Thursday, Sept. 25. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
East Carolina is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. Army, meanwhile, comes in as a +5 underdog and sits at +175 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my Army vs. East Carolina prediction and college football picks for Thursday, September 25.
Army Black Knights vs. East Carolina Pirates Prediction, Picks
- Army vs. East Carolina Pick: 1H Under 26.5
My East Carolina vs. Army best bet is on under the first-half total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Army vs. East Carolina Odds, Spread, Line
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +154 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
- Army vs. East Carolina Spread: East Carolina -4, Army +4
- Army vs. East Carolina Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- Army vs. East Carolina Moneyline: East Carolina ML -185, Army ML +154
When Army Has the Ball
These aren’t the 2024 Army Black Knights.
Now 1-2 on the season, Army has played in three one-score games, with two resulting in overtime, and neither has gone its way.
However, the quality of the opponent should be considered, as one of those overtime losses came against a scorching-hot Tarleton State team, while its win came at a struggling Kansas State.
Quarterback Dewayne Coleman has had trouble staying on the field and withstanding the physical demands of the position for this scheme. In all three games, Coleman exited with an injury, giving way to speedster Cale Hellums; Hellums has entered in high-pressure situations each time.
The biggest concern for Army at the moment is the lack of a run defense. The Black Knights rank 120th nationally in Run Success Rate allowed, which also results in them ranking 115th in points per drive allowed. When the game comes down to it, teams have been able to move the ball on Army, and those chunk plays have lost it both overtime games.
Special teams have also been an issue. Army missed two late field goals, including one in overtime, that directly led to the Tarleton State loss. Kicker Dawson Jones managed to connect on a game-tying attempt last week against North Texas.
Army projects to play in five more one-score games this season, though there are opportunities for wins (Charlotte, Temple at home).
But if this team continues to find themselves in late-game scramble situations, those losses could pile up and threaten bowl eligibility.
When East Carolina Has the Ball
Despite a 34-13 final, East Carolina played well against BYU last week. However, some critical mistakes cost them the game and buried the Pirates.
Down 6-3 and having forced three-and-outs on 40% of BYU’s drives, East Carolina ended a 14-play drive with an interception.
On the ensuing offensive drive, Katin Houser threw a mind-boggling pick-six on a questionable out route at his own one-yard line. It’s like the floodgates opened and BYU never looked back, scoring a touchdown on three of five second-half drives.
Houser’s turnover struggles weren’t isolated to that game or even this year. He’s a quarterback not afraid to take chances, and, as a result, he will turn the ball over too frequently. But with nearly 1,300 passing yards on the young season (fourth-most among FBS quarterbacks), the good outweighs the bad, and ECU will take that kind of production from its quarterback.
Defensively, ECU has both exceeded expectations and made its money this year. Particularly, the Pirates have been excellent up front, controlling the line of scrimmage against NC State and BYU (neither managed to generate one yard per carry against the offensive line). Linebackers Dameon Wilson and Samuel Dankah have combined for 19 run stops, and ECU ranks inside the top five nationally in Stuff Rate on defense.
We likely already know what ECU is about. It’ll win games it's supposed to (Coastal Carolina, Campbell), sometimes emphatically, and play decently in games it’s not favored in (NC State, BYU). Given this year’s schedule, that puts the Pirates somewhere around 7-5 or 8-4, plenty of room to make a bowl game.
Army vs. East Carolina NCAAF Week 5 Pick to Bet
East Carolina took some heavy movement right out of the gate after opening as a 2.5-point favorite. By Monday afternoon, ECU had climbed to a 5.5-point favorite, while the total had ticked down from 53.5 to 52.5.
On paper, East Carolina appears to have the tools to counter Army, particularly up front. Army’s offensive line has not controlled the line of scrimmage enough to field a dominant offense, and it’s becoming a bit too reliant on explosive plays.
However, East Carolina must prepare for the option offense — the only time ECU will see it this year, but the third time in two seasons it will face the option — on a short week. Don’t underestimate the difficulty of preparing for an unfamiliar opponent in the non-conference (BYU) and then turning around and prepping for the option on a short week, even at home.
Ball control is the name of the game for Army. On the other side, ECU has shown the ability to drag some drives out into painstakingly long affairs (14-play, 70-yard drive that resulted in a turnover, anyone?).
Army’s defensive deficiency comes on the ground, a place ECU doesn’t live or excel in.
I expect this first half to be one where both teams feel each other out. ECU is adjusting to the option, and Army is looking to keep everything in front of it.
The Pirates have also been better defensively in the first half than in the second, but worse offensively.
Pick: 1H Under 26.5
