The Ball State Cardinals take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on BTN.
Ohio State is favored by -50.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 56.5 points.
Here’s my Ball State vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026.
Ball State vs Ohio State Prediction
- Ball State vs. Ohio State Pick: Ohio State 1Q -12.5 (-115, Hard Rock) | Play to 13.5
My Ohio State vs. Ball State best bet is on the Buckeyes to cover the first-quarter spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ball State vs Ohio State Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+50.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-50.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
- Ball State vs Ohio State point spread: Ohio State -50.5 (-110), Ball State +50.5 (-110)
- Ball State vs Ohio State over/under: 56.5 (-110o / -110u)
Ball State vs Ohio State Preview
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview: Uncompetitive Cardinals
Ball State is coming off one of the roughest seasons in the country. The Cardinals finished 4-8 overall and were winless on the road at 0-7. They scored only 190 points all year (108th nationally), while their defense allowed 358 points (131st).
The offseason brought a new starting quarterback in Keldric Luster, who takes over an offense that lost significant pieces around him and now has to break in a new signal-caller against what will be, by a wide margin, the best defense he's faced in his career.
Ball State has never beaten Ohio State and sits 0-32 all-time against the Big Ten, a series history with zero competitive precedent to lean on heading into Columbus.
Ohio State opened as a 50.5-point favorite with the total set at 56.5, the largest spread of the entire opening week of college football.
Ryan Day is 3-4-1 against the spread in season openers during his tenure, most notably failing to cover as a 48-point favorite against Akron in 2024.
His track record adds real caution to betting the full-game number, but it's far less relevant to my angle for this matchup.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Back Motivated Buckeyes
Ohio State opens the season as the No. 1 team in the country after a 2025 campaign that ended in disappointment. Losses in both the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff kept the Buckeyes from finishing the job despite a roster loaded with talent.
That disappointment has only sharpened the motivation entering this season.
Julian Sayin is now firmly entrenched as the starter after a breakout 2025 in which he completed 77% of his passes for 3,610 yards, 32 touchdowns and just eight interceptions.
He'll have Jeremiah Smith, one of the most electric receivers in the country, as his top target, and both are widely expected to use this opener to jump-start their Heisman campaigns.
Look for these two to connect early and often.
Ball State vs Ohio State Pick, Betting Analysis
Day's uneven full-game ATS record in blowout openers has generally been a product of what happens after the outcome is decided.
Once a 40- or 50-point margin is well in hand, backups enter, the offense downshifts and garbage-time scoring dries up on both sides.
None of that risk applies to a bet that settles at the end of the first 15 minutes, before any of that clock-killing or roster rotation typically begins.
What does apply in the first quarter is Ohio State's clear incentive to come out fast. Sayin and Smith are both using this game to build early-season Heisman buzz, which means the starters are expected to play with intent from the opening snap rather than coast.
This is also a program with championship aspirations after last year's near-miss, and it has every reason to make an early statement rather than have a slow start.
On the other side, Ball State is trotting out a first-time starter in Luster behind an offensive line and skill group that was already one of the least productive units in the country last season.
Now the Cardinals are facing a Matt Patricia-coordinated defense that should be able to generate pressure and disruption immediately.
Historically, Ohio State has punished MAC opponents early rather than needing time to pull away, and a team that scored at a top-15 clip last season against a defense that ranked bottom-10 nationally is a matchup built for a fast start.
Pick: Ohio State 1st Quarter -12.5 (-115, Hard Rock)| Play to 13.5
