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The South Alabama Jaguars take on the Marshall Thundering Herd in Huntington, West Virginia, on Tuesday, Oct. 20. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
South Alabama is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -154. Marshall, meanwhile, enters as a +3,5 underdog and is +128 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 65.5 total points.
Here’s my South Alabama vs. Marshall prediction and college football pick for Tuesday, October 20.
South Alabama vs Marshall Prediction
- South Alabama vs. Marshall Pick: South Alabama Team Total Over 34.5 or better
My Marshall vs. South Alabama best bet is on over the Jaguars' team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs Marshall Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +102 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -154 |
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -124 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
- South Alabama vs Marshall point spread: South Alabama -3.5 (+102), Marshall +3.5 (-124)
- South Alabama vs Marshall over/under: 65.5 (-110o / -110u)
- South Alabama vs Marshall moneyline: South Alabama -154, Marshall +128
South Alabama vs Marshall College Football Preview
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: A Tale of 2 Phases
South Alabama really unlocked something with sophomore quarterback Jared Hollins.
Since Bishop Davenport went down to injury and was ultimately replaced, the Jaguars have fielded one of the Sun Belt's most potent offenses, scoring 40-plus points in three of its last four games and 50-plus in each of its last two.
For fans of the run game, South Alabama's is downright delightful.
PJ Martin (354 yards, five touchdowns) and Keenan Phillips (355 yards, five touchdowns) make up one of the best rushing duos in the Group of 6 and are complemented by track star Trae'von Dunbar and Hollins himself.
The ground attack came to a head against Arkansas State when South Alabama attempted just 11 passes in a 56-49 win. Service academies aside, only seven teams run with more frequency than the Jaguars' 62.5% rush rate.
They're spearheaded by a top-notch offensive line that landed on the midseason Joe Moore Award Top 25.
That line has stayed remarkably consistent and (knock on wood) healthy — the starting five has played all but 11 snaps on the season, with brief injury relief at right tackle.
The defense has some work to do, though.
A top-15 scoring offense in Points Per Drive is marred by the 130th-ranked defense that also sits dead last in adjusted EPA Per Play.
With a myriad of coverage breakdowns, poor secondary play overall and tackling fit for the peewee stage, South Alabama has allowed 35-plus points in four straight games — games it's a remarkable 3-1 in, anyway.
Marshall Thundering Herd Betting Preview: Below Average
There's a pretty clear hierarchy where Marshall belongs this football season.
Against FBS opponents power-rated inside the bottom 15 nationally — and an FCS opponent — Marshall is 3-0 with a +9 total point margin. Against everyone else, Marshall is 0-3 with a -79 total point margin.
It came closest to beating Coastal Carolina in its sole one-score loss on the season (27-21), but the Chants still sit outside the top 100 nationally.
Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has been a combination of banged up and mediocre. He bottomed out in that Coastal game, where the senior threw six passes and was picked off three times (and he lost a fumble).
Head coach Tony Gibson made it obvious he was displeased with Del Rio-Wilson's performance in the game.
Marshall has been the beneficiary of some extraordinary luck despite its 3-3 record. It took two missed field goals by the opponent, a short-field scoring drive, a fumble-six and a field goal of its own with just six seconds left to stave off Gardner-Webb.
Missouri State failed to score a point twice inside Marshall's 10-yard line, including at the end of the game — Marshall again had to stave off its opponent.
It scored the game-winning touchdown on a two-yard field and successfully defended a two-point conversion to beat Middle Tennessee.
This team is a mild gust of wind away from an 0-6 disaster. It should be treated as such.
The problem (aside from a Del Rio-Wilson meltdown) is twofold: Marshall's offense can't generate anything explosive, and its pass defense is lost. To add insult to injury, starting nose tackle Kenyatta Hardge missed Week 6 to injury.
South Alabama vs Marshall Pick, Betting Analysis
This line sits right on South Alabama -3, and either side promotes buyers — neither -2.5 nor +3.5 lasted long this week.
The total was bet way up from its opening mark of 60.5, topping out at 64.5 points. Weather should cooperate here with seasonable temperatures and light wind.
South Alabama has a decisive advantage in the trenches on offense and on the ground. Marshall sits 119th in yards per rush allowed, aided by 10 rushes of 20-plus yards and seven of 30-plus despite playing some less-than-elite rushing offenses.
Marshall's biggest defensive weakness comes in its passing defense, and Hollins has proven to be an efficient, low-volume passer.
Zion Turner and Del Rio-Wilson are willing downfield passers, but with poor and inefficient results. Against South Alabama's defense, however, these quarterbacks might start to connect on these downfield shots.
A true disaster on defense has only been saved by opposing gaffes at critical junctures — its stop rate is aided more often than not by self-inflicted missed opportunities by opposing offenses.
South Alabama is currently a team total over play, especially against vulnerable defenses. Its defense makes it hard to trust holistically, especially on the road, so I'm backing the Jaguars in a more isolated manner.
Pick: South Alabama Team Total Over 34.5 or Better
South Alabama vs Marshall Betting Trends
