If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Missouri State Bears take on the Delaware Fightin Blue Hens in Newark, Delaware, on Tuesday, Oct. 20. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Delaware is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -152. Missouri State, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +126 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. Delaware prediction and college football pick for Tuesday, October 20.
Missouri State vs Delaware Prediction
- Missouri State vs. Delaware Pick: Delaware Team Total Over 27.5
My Delaware vs. Missouri State best bet is on the Blue Hens to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri State vs Delaware Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | +126 |
| Delaware Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -122 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | -152 |
- Missouri State vs Delaware Spread: Delaware -2.5, Missouri State +2.5
- Missouri State vs Delaware Over/Under: 52.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Missouri State vs Delaware Moneyline: Missouri State +126, Delaware -152
Missouri State vs Delaware College Football Preview
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Quarterback Controversy
So far this season, we’ve gotten a Jekyll and Hyde act from Missouri State.
Goal-line miscues doomed MO State against Marshall, while a few strokes of luck closed the gap at SMU.
This is a team that lost handily to Western Kentucky, 34-13, but turned around and beat Kennesaw State despite more missed goal-line opportunities.
The quarterback situation is nebulous, to say the least.
The Bears had gone with Skyler Locklear since Week 1, but Henry Belin IV has crept his way into the lineup both when Locklear suffered an injury and other times when he was benched due to performance.
Belin is the more physically imposing player at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, but the offense hasn’t run much better under him than Locklear, who plays in the system and is on time as an undersized passer.
On offense, it's all-or-nothing on any given play (133rd on non-explosive EPA Per Play), while the defense does a good job containing explosives.
However, only three teams (Colorado State, Illinois and NIU) allow a higher Success Rate to opponents (52.3%), due in part to a virtually nonexistent pass rush and in part to a vulnerable secondary.
Ultimately, Missouri State allows its opponents to march down the field with ease.
Delaware Blue Hens Betting Preview: No Minicucci, No Problem?
It was previously thought that Delaware was dead in the water without starting quarterback Nick Minicucci.
Head coach Ryan Carty has been pretty cryptic about the veteran, only calling him “week-to-week” after Minicucci suffered what appeared to be a non-contact leg injury back in Week 4.
But against Middle Tennessee, freshman Tyler Bell showed some good stuff, throwing for over 300 yards and making a handful of exciting plays (and also taking some freshman sacks).
He rushed for 59 non-sack yards, including 40 yards on designed runs, and he frequently drove the ball downfield.
In terms of a midseason emergency freshman quarterback, Delaware could do worse. But there’s a ton of pressure on Bell to perform because the defense really struggles in the three-high odd front that defensive coordinator Manny Rojas runs.
Giving up 400 yards to Middle Tennessee, including 93 on the game-winning drive, is cause for significant concern and isn’t an issue that seems week-to-week or obviously fixable.
The other issue comes in an ineffective run game that’s come as a surprise considering the return of all-conference running back Jo Silver. This season, Silver has rushed for just four yards per carry, and only seven of his 58 rush attempts have gone for 10-plus yards.
In the last two (pretty much since Minicucci went down), Silver has seen his number of carries cut in half, and he has run for less than 2.1 yards per carry.
An inability to run the ball leads to bad early downs, not converting on long third downs, and not enough time with the football (Delaware ranks 109th in time-of-possession share at 47%).
Missouri State vs Delaware Pick, Betting Analysis
This line sits on two key numbers: -3 and 52.
It’s clear those numbers are hard caps, as any time Delaware -2.5 presents itself, it gets bought, and any time 52.5 presents itself, the under takes a hit. The market sees this game as fair.
Carty isn’t giving us much to work with on Minicucci, whose week-to-week status was granted just on Saturday. Belin earned the start for Missouri State on Tuesday after throwing for 300 yards and securing the win over Kennesaw last week.
I didn’t trust Missouri State last week and opted to fade it at home.
Unfortunately, a comedy of coaching errors from Kennesaw proved me wrong, even though the Bears likely should have won more comfortably if they ever figured out how to score near the goal line.
However, I still don’t trust the Bears. The offense is stagnant when it’s not connecting on deep shots, and the change to Belin doesn’t exude a ton of improvement — it’s just a bad unit.
And although Delaware’s defense has been pretty bad so far this year, it’s the lesser of two evils in this game considering MO State’s soft unit.
I liked what I saw from the freshman Bell, and returning home should make him more comfortable on what should be a beautiful evening for midweek CUSA action.
Only four teams have possessed the ball for less time than Missouri State this season, but to avoid CUSA weeknight nonsense, I’m backing Delaware at home in a more isolated manner.
Give me the Blue Hens to go over their team total with Bell leading the way.
Pick: Delaware Team Total Over 27.5
Missouri State vs Delaware Betting Trends
