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Week 8's college football action kicks off with three games on Tuesday.
Our college football experts, Road to CFB and Joshua Nunn, came through with three picks for Delaware vs. Missouri State and FIU vs. Middle Tennessee in Conference USA, as well as Marshall vs. South Alabama in the Sun Belt.
Let's dive into their Tuesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for October 13.
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Tuesday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Delaware vs. Missouri State Pick
By RoadToCFB
This line sits on two key numbers: -3 and 52.
It’s clear those numbers are hard caps, as any time Delaware -2.5 presents itself, it gets bought, and any time 52.5 presents itself, the under takes a hit. The market sees this game as fair.
Blue Hens head coach Ryan Carty isn’t giving us much to work with on the status of quarterback Nick Minicucci, whose week-to-week status was granted just on Saturday.
On the other side, Henry Belin IV earned the start for Missouri State over Skyler Locklear after throwing for 300 yards and securing the win over Kennesaw last week.
I didn’t trust Missouri State last week and opted to fade it at home.
Unfortunately, a comedy of coaching errors from Kennesaw proved me wrong, even though the Bears likely should have won more comfortably if they ever figured out how to score near the goal line.
However, I still don’t trust the Bears. The offense is stagnant when it’s not connecting on deep shots, and the change to Belin doesn’t exude a ton of improvement — it’s just a bad unit.
And although Delaware’s defense has been pretty bad so far this year, it’s the lesser of two evils in this game considering MO State’s soft unit.
I liked what I saw from Delaware freshman quarterback Tyler Bell, and returning home should make him more comfortable on what should be a beautiful evening for midweek CUSA action.
Only four teams have possessed the ball for less time than Missouri State this season, but to avoid CUSA weeknight nonsense, I’m backing Delaware at home in a more isolated manner.
Give me the Blue Hens to go over their team total with Bell leading the way.
Pick: Delaware Team Total Over 27.5
| | |
FIU vs. Middle Tennessee Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with FIU listed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 45.5. I like FIU to stay under its team total, which sits at 28.5.
The FIU offense isn't explosive, and the team generally struggles to score points. Last week, the Panthers scored 24 points in a loss to Jacksonville State, and they had only exceeded that point total one other time this season.
The offense tends to play at a slower pace, and it makes a concerted effort to run the football and play solid defense.
We didn't see any of that last week, as FIU went for it on fourth down in situations it would normally punt, and the two long, fluky passing touchdowns aren't likely to occur again.
The MTSU secondary hasn't played too poorly this season, and I don't expect to see chunk plays for FIU through the air in this game.
The Panthers want to run the football, and they should have success in this game against a Blue Raiders defense that ranks 137th nationally in Rushing Success Rate and 132nd in Rushing PPA allowed.
FIU has struggled badly in the red zone this season, converting just 7-of-22 trips into touchdowns. The MTSU defense has played well in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 10-of-17 possessions against Non-P4 competition this season.
Expect FIU to have to settle for a couple of red-zone field goals in this one, something it has already done 11 times this year.
The Panthers should get back to the rock-solid defensive performances we've seen for the majority of this season. I expect this game to be one where the defenses control the terms, and I really don’t think either one of these coaches wants to get into another shootout.
FIU can control this game start to finish by forcing MTSU to execute perfectly and drive the field methodically.
I like this game to trend to the under and for FIU to win a close, lower-scoring contest. But this offense hasn't exceeded this point total in five of its six games this season, and I don't think it will here.
Pick: FIU Team Total Under 28.5
| | |
Marshall vs. South Alabama Pick
By RoadToCFB
This line sits right on South Alabama -3, and either side promotes buyers — neither -2.5 nor +3.5 lasted long this week.
The total was bet way up from its opening mark of 60.5, topping out at 64.5 points. Weather should cooperate here with seasonable temperatures and light wind.
South Alabama has a decisive advantage in the trenches on offense and on the ground. Marshall sits 119th in yards per rush allowed, aided by 10 rushes of 20-plus yards and seven of 30-plus despite playing some less-than-elite rushing offenses.
Marshall's biggest defensive weakness comes in its passing defense, and South Alabama quarterback Jared Hollins has proven to be an efficient, low-volume passer.
Marshall QBs Zion Turner and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson are willing downfield passers, but with poor and inefficient results. Against South Alabama's defense, however, these quarterbacks might start to connect on these downfield shots.
A true disaster on defense has only been saved by opposing gaffes at critical junctures — its stop rate is aided more often than not by self-inflicted missed opportunities by opposing offenses.
South Alabama is currently a team total over play, especially against vulnerable defenses. Its defense makes it hard to trust holistically, especially on the road, so I'm backing the Jaguars in a more isolated manner.
Pick: South Alabama Team Total Over 34.5 or Better
